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1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 16 2026

Kreuzlingen vs Bavois

Kreuzlingen Home · Elo 1,474
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bavois Away · Elo 1,519
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bavois win
Kreuzlingen win
36.4%
Draw
21.8%
Bavois winPick
41.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%

How much we know

Kreuzlingen history59 matches
Bavois history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Bavois are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bavois are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,474. On rating alone Bavois would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Bavois score more

    1.37 goals a game over 59 matches for Kreuzlingen, against 1.60 over 63 for Bavois.

  • Bavois concede fewer

    Kreuzlingen concede 1.80 a game, Bavois 1.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Kreuzlingen matches, against 57% for Bavois. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kreuzlingen
Bavois@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1473.5
ELO
1519.1
59
ELO · Matches
63
1473.5
Current Team ELO
1519.1
1519.1
Current Opponent ELO
1473.5
-45.57
Current ELO Difference
45.57
0.43
Expected score
0.57
59
History Matches
63
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
48.00
Overperformance
50.78
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.33
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.06
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
63
1.27
PPG
1.52
33.9%
Win rate
42.9%
25.4%
Draw rate
23.8%
40.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
33
1.39
PPG
1.18
35.7%
Win rate
33.3%
32.1%
Draw rate
18.2%
32.1%
Loss rate
48.5%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
46.4%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
28
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.60
74.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
62.7%
BTTS rate
58.7%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.61
82.1%
Scoring rate
78.8%
75.0%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
59
History Matches
63
1.37
Goals Mean
1.60
1.16
Goals Std
1.43
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
23.8%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.41
86.4%
Conceding rate
69.8%
1.64
Goals against per game
1.64
89.3%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
63
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.38
Conceded Std
1.43
50.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.1%
22.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.0%
1.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
63
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.98
Goal Difference Std
2.16
1.62
Stability score
2.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
63
15
Lead Matches
20
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.80
24
Trailing Matches
21
29.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.96
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.25
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.80
Portability PPG Std
0.21
2.25
Portability PPG Range
0.58
38.37
Portability Score
70.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-45.57
PPG-0.25
GF-0.23
GA0.38
PPG-0.25
PPG0.21
PPG0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.06
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.88
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-0.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.18
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.59
Portability PPG Range1.67
Portability Score-31.99
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.60
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-45.57
Current Opponent ELO45.57
Current ELO Difference-91.13
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kreuzlingen

L
Kreuzlingen2–3Luzern II31 Oct · home
Pick: Kreuzlingen 55% · missed
L
Young Boys II5–2Kreuzlingen25 Oct · away
Pick: Young Boys II 41% · hit
L
Kreuzlingen2–3Bulle21 Oct · home
Pick: Bulle 50% · hit
W
Kreuzlingen1–0Breitenrain29 Aug · home
Pick: Breitenrain 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bavois

W
Bavois4–1Paradiso7 Nov · home
Pick: Bavois 51% · hit
L
Cham2–1Bavois31 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 43% · hit
L
Basel II3–1Bavois17 Oct · away
Pick: Bavois 41% · missed
L
Lugano II3–2Bavois29 Aug · away
Pick: Bavois 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kreuzlingen and Bavois meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kreuzlingen win 36.4%, draw 21.8%, Bavois win 41.8%. The pick is Bavois win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.