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1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 16 2026

Brühl vs Lugano II

Brühl Home · Elo 1,566
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lugano II Away · Elo 1,425
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brühl win
Brühl winPick
63.7%
Draw
20.5%
Lugano II win
15.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.3%
No36.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.0%
Under 2.525.0%

How much we know

Brühl history61 matches
Lugano II history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.7%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Brühl are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brühl are rated 141 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,566 against 1,425. On rating alone Brühl would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Brühl score far more

    2.23 goals a game over 61 matches for Brühl, against 1.39 over 59 for Lugano II.

  • Brühl concede fewer

    Brühl concede 1.67 a game, Lugano II 1.95.

  • Brühl games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Brühl matches, against 58% for Lugano II. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brühl
Lugano II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1565.9
ELO
1425.2
61
ELO · Matches
59
1565.9
Current Team ELO
1425.2
1425.2
Current Opponent ELO
1565.9
140.7
Current ELO Difference
-140.7
0.69
Expected score
0.31
61
History Matches
59
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.21
Overperformance
45.45
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
3.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.70
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
59
1.67
PPG
1.07
49.2%
Win rate
25.4%
19.7%
Draw rate
30.5%
31.1%
Loss rate
44.1%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
73.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
60.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
29
2.26
PPG
0.93
70.4%
Win rate
24.1%
14.8%
Draw rate
20.7%
14.8%
Loss rate
55.2%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
74.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
63.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.7%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
27
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.23
Goals for per game
1.39
86.9%
Scoring rate
71.2%
68.9%
BTTS rate
61.0%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.48
92.6%
Scoring rate
79.3%
70.4%
BTTS rate
72.4%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
59
2.23
Goals Mean
1.39
1.64
Goals Std
1.25
86.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
62.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.4%
34.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
2.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.95
78.7%
Conceding rate
81.4%
1.22
Goals against per game
2.21
74.1%
Conceding rate
89.7%
0.75
Goals against per game
3.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
59
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.39
Conceded Std
1.55
44.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.9%
27.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.5%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
2.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
13.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
13.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
59
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
2.34
Goal Difference Std
1.94
6.05
Stability score
2.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
59
22
Lead Matches
15
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.80
17
Trailing Matches
22
29.4%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
36
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
20
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.75
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.92
Portability PPG Range
1.10
40.76
Portability Score
55.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO140.7
PPG0.60
GF0.84
GA-0.28
PPG1.00
PPG1.33
PPG1.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.84
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate15.7%
Scored 2+ rate19.9%
Scored 3+ rate19.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.73
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score3.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.15
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate13.0%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate13.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.81
Portability Score-14.29
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.88
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO140.7
Current Opponent ELO-140.7
Current ELO Difference281.4
Expected score0.38
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brühl

W
Brühl2–1Breitenrain7 Nov · home
Pick: Brühl 53% · hit
W
YF Juventus0–2Brühl31 Oct · away
Pick: YF Juventus 42% · missed
W
Brühl3–1Zürich II24 Oct · home
Pick: Brühl 62% · hit
L
Bellinzona2–0Brühl21 Oct · away
Pick: Brühl 68% · missed
W
Köniz0–2Brühl17 Oct · away
Pick: Brühl 60% · hit

Lugano II

L
Lugano II1–6YF Juventus7 Nov · home
Pick: YF Juventus 38% · hit
L
Zürich II6–1Lugano II31 Oct · away
Pick: Zürich II 53% · hit
D
Lugano II1–1Bellinzona25 Oct · home
Pick: Lugano II 43% · missed
W
Grand-Saconnex1–2Lugano II17 Oct · away
Pick: Grand-Saconnex 64% · missed
W
Lugano II3–2Bavois29 Aug · home
Pick: Bavois 47% · missed

About this match

Brühl and Lugano II meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Brühl win 63.7%, draw 20.5%, Lugano II win 15.9%. The pick is Brühl win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.0%. Both teams to score: 63.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.