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1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 16 2026

Paradiso vs Amical Saint-Prex

Paradiso Home · Elo 1,448
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Amical Saint-Prex Away · Elo 1,587
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paradiso win
Paradiso winPick
49.9%
Draw
21.3%
Amical Saint-Prex win
28.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.0%
No40.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%

How much we know

Paradiso history59 matches
Amical Saint-Prex history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Paradiso are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Amical Saint-Prex are rated 139 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,587 against 1,448. On rating alone Amical Saint-Prex would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Amical Saint-Prex score far more

    1.36 goals a game over 59 matches for Paradiso, against 2.11 over 45 for Amical Saint-Prex.

  • Amical Saint-Prex concede fewer

    Paradiso concede 1.69 a game, Amical Saint-Prex 1.38.

  • Amical Saint-Prex games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Paradiso matches, against 67% for Amical Saint-Prex. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paradiso
Amical Saint-Prex@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.5
ELO
1586.9
59
ELO · Matches
45
1447.5
Current Team ELO
1586.9
1586.9
Current Opponent ELO
1447.5
-139.4
Current ELO Difference
139.4
0.31
Expected score
0.69
59
History Matches
45
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.10
46.63
Overperformance
56.67
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
2.10
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
2.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
45
1.17
PPG
1.98
28.8%
Win rate
62.2%
30.5%
Draw rate
11.1%
40.7%
Loss rate
26.7%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
22
1.34
PPG
1.59
34.5%
Win rate
50.0%
31.0%
Draw rate
9.1%
34.5%
Loss rate
40.9%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
29
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
2.11
72.9%
Scoring rate
88.9%
54.2%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.91
82.8%
Scoring rate
81.8%
62.1%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
45
1.36
Goals Mean
2.11
1.27
Goals Std
1.52
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.1%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.38
71.2%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.52
Goals against per game
1.64
72.4%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
45
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.65
Conceded Std
1.29
47.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
23.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
45
0.99
Result entropy
0.81
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.16
1.09
Stability score
18.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
24
15
Lead Matches
12
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.83
18
Trailing Matches
4
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.96
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
33
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
23
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.08
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.90
67.31
Portability Score
61.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-139.4
PPG-0.81
GF-0.76
GA0.32
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate16.0%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.76
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Conceded 2+ rate7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches14
Result entropy0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-17.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches35
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches35
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score6.25
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-139.4
Current Opponent ELO139.4
Current ELO Difference-278.8
Expected score-0.38
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-10.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paradiso

L
Bavois4–1Paradiso7 Nov · away
Pick: Bavois 51% · hit
D
Paradiso1–1Biel-Bienne31 Oct · home
Pick: Biel-Bienne 58% · missed
W
Luzern II1–2Paradiso24 Oct · away
Pick: Luzern II 39% · missed
D
Paradiso2–2Young Boys II17 Oct · home
Pick: Paradiso 49% · missed
W
Grand-Saconnex2–5Paradiso29 Aug · away
Pick: Grand-Saconnex 54% · missed

Amical Saint-Prex

L
Amical Saint-Prex0–5Cham7 Nov · home
Pick: Cham 44% · hit
L
FC Schaffhausen1–0Amical Saint-Prex31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Schaffhausen 67% · hit
W
Amical Saint-Prex2–0Basel II24 Oct · home
Pick: Amical Saint-Prex 43% · hit
L
Breitenrain3–0Amical Saint-Prex17 Oct · away
Pick: Breitenrain 59% · hit
L
Brühl4–1Amical Saint-Prex29 Aug · away
Pick: Brühl 60% · hit

About this match

Paradiso and Amical Saint-Prex meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Paradiso win 49.9%, draw 21.3%, Amical Saint-Prex win 28.8%. The pick is Paradiso win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 60.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.