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1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 16 2026

Cham vs Basel II

Cham Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Basel II Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cham win
Cham winPick
52.6%
Draw
22.2%
Basel II win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.0%
No36.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%

How much we know

Cham history61 matches
Basel II history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Cham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,530 against 1,520. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.75 goals a game over 61 matches for Cham, against 1.79 over 58 for Basel II.

  • Defences are close

    Cham concede 1.66 a game, Basel II 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Cham matches, against 67% for Basel II. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cham
Basel II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.4
ELO
1519.7
61
ELO · Matches
58
1530.4
Current Team ELO
1519.7
1519.7
Current Opponent ELO
1530.4
10.78
Current ELO Difference
-10.78
0.52
Expected score
0.48
61
History Matches
58
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.42
Overperformance
51.92
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
58
1.51
PPG
1.53
42.6%
Win rate
43.1%
23.0%
Draw rate
24.1%
34.4%
Loss rate
32.8%
91.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.5%
67.2%
Over 2.5 rate
67.2%
45.9%
Over 3.5 rate
43.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
26
1.55
PPG
1.42
42.4%
Win rate
38.5%
27.3%
Draw rate
26.9%
30.3%
Loss rate
34.6%
97.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
48.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
33
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.75
Goals for per game
1.79
80.3%
Scoring rate
82.8%
67.2%
BTTS rate
67.2%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.69
84.8%
Scoring rate
84.6%
72.7%
BTTS rate
73.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
58
1.75
Goals Mean
1.79
1.28
Goals Std
1.34
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
82.8%
57.4%
Scored 2+ rate
55.2%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
27.6%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.55
83.6%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.58
87.9%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
58
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.20
Conceded Std
1.21
49.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.8%
24.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
58
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.82
2.75
Stability score
2.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
56
24
Lead Matches
24
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.86
19
Trailing Matches
16
15.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
34
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
0.75
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.84
Portability PPG Range
0.99
58.56
Portability Score
54.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO10.78
PPG-0.03
GF-0.04
GA0.10
PPG1.50
PPG0.12
PPG1.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score0.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score3.62
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO10.78
Current Opponent ELO-10.78
Current ELO Difference21.57
Expected score0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cham

W
Amical Saint-Prex0–5Cham7 Nov · away
Pick: Cham 44% · hit
W
Cham2–1Bavois31 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 43% · hit
D
Cham2–2Luzern II28 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 62% · missed
D
Biel-Bienne2–2Cham25 Oct · away
Pick: Biel-Bienne 63% · missed
L
Cham0–2FC Sion17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Sion 57% · hit

Basel II

D
Basel II2–2FC Schaffhausen7 Nov · home
Pick: FC Schaffhausen 49% · missed
L
Breitenrain2–0Basel II31 Oct · away
Pick: Breitenrain 52% · hit
L
Amical Saint-Prex2–0Basel II24 Oct · away
Pick: Amical Saint-Prex 43% · hit
W
Basel II3–1Bavois17 Oct · home
Pick: Bavois 41% · missed
W
YF Juventus2–3Basel II29 Aug · away
Pick: YF Juventus 50% · missed

About this match

Cham and Basel II meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cham win 52.6%, draw 22.2%, Basel II win 25.2%. The pick is Cham win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.5%. Both teams to score: 64.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.