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FA Trophy England Round 128 2026

Leek Town vs Morecambe

Leek Town Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Morecambe Away · Elo 1,403
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Morecambe win
Leek Town win
36.7%
Draw
24.5%
Morecambe winPick
38.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Leek Town history69 matches
Morecambe history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Morecambe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leek Town are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,403. On rating alone Leek Town would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.25 goals a game over 69 matches for Leek Town, against 1.28 over 81 for Morecambe.

  • Leek Town concede fewer

    Leek Town concede 1.25 a game, Morecambe 1.90.

  • Morecambe games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Leek Town matches, against 57% for Morecambe. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leek Town
Morecambe@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.5
ELO
1402.8
69
ELO · Matches
81
1518.5
Current Team ELO
1402.8
1402.8
Current Opponent ELO
1518.5
115.7
Current ELO Difference
-115.7
0.66
Expected score
0.34
69
History Matches
81
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
51.36
Overperformance
45.21
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.50
1.50
Goals for per game
0.70
1.10
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.67
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
81
1.39
PPG
0.88
39.1%
Win rate
22.2%
21.7%
Draw rate
21.0%
39.1%
Loss rate
56.8%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.2%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
42
1.53
PPG
0.81
44.4%
Win rate
21.4%
19.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
36.1%
Loss rate
61.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
36
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.28
72.5%
Scoring rate
65.4%
49.3%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.38
75.0%
Scoring rate
64.3%
47.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
69
History Matches
81
1.25
Goals Mean
1.28
1.15
Goals Std
1.34
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.4%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
34.6%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.90
72.5%
Conceding rate
84.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
2.12
66.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
69
History Matches
81
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.04
Conceded Std
1.43
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.8%
10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.2%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
81
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.99
2.96
Stability score
10.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
81
18
Lead Matches
19
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
63.2%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.74
23
Trailing Matches
29
26.1%
Non-loss rate
13.8%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.14
54
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.84
9
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.75
52.03
Portability Score
45.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO115.7
PPG0.51
GF-0.04
GA-0.65
PPG0.72
PPG0.80
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate7.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.97
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score-7.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.03
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate25.7%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate12.3%
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score6.12
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.86
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO115.7
Current Opponent ELO-115.7
Current ELO Difference231.5
Expected score0.32
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leek Town

W
Leek Town3–2Ilkeston Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Leek Town 50% · hit
L
Guiseley AFC4–1Leek Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Guiseley AFC 50% · hit
L
Curzon Ashton2–1Leek Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Curzon Ashton 42% · hit
L
Bury5–3Leek Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Bury 42% · hit
W
Leek Town4–1Bootle24 Oct · home
Pick: Leek Town 51% · hit

Morecambe

L
Hednesford Town6–2Morecambe7 Nov · away
Pick: Hednesford Town 50% · hit
W
Morecambe2–0Scarborough Athletic31 Oct · home
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 46% · missed
W
Morecambe1–0Darlington 188327 Oct · home
Pick: Morecambe 38% · hit
W
Merthyr Town1–3Morecambe24 Oct · away
Pick: Merthyr Town 51% · missed
L
AFC Rushden & Diamonds2–1Morecambe17 Oct · away
Pick: Morecambe 50% · missed

About this match

Leek Town and Morecambe meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Leek Town win 36.7%, draw 24.5%, Morecambe win 38.8%. The pick is Morecambe win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.