Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs Dessel Sport
Match result probability Model pick: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar winPick
45.8%
Draw
20.3%
Dessel Sport win
33.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.3%
No39.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.6%
Under 2.533.4%
How much we know
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar history42 matches
Dessel Sport history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Lyra-Lierse Berlaar are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,496 against 1,506. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Dessel Sport score more
1.57 goals a game over 42 matches for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, against 2.00 over 41 for Dessel Sport.
-
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar concede fewer
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar concede 1.60 a game, Dessel Sport 1.98.
-
Dessel Sport games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of Lyra-Lierse Berlaar matches, against 76% for Dessel Sport. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dessel Sport@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1495.7
ELO
1505.9
42
ELO · Matches
41
1495.7
Current Team ELO
1505.9
1505.9
Current Opponent ELO
1495.7
-10.12
Current ELO Difference
10.12
0.49
Expected score
0.51
42
History Matches
41
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
49.33
Overperformance
50.61
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
2.30
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals 90
42
Matches
41
1.36
PPG
1.41
35.7%
Win rate
39.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
24.4%
35.7%
Loss rate
36.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.7%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
75.6%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
58.5%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
20
1.80
PPG
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
20
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.57
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
85.4%
45.2%
BTTS rate
80.5%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
42
History Matches
41
1.57
Goals Mean
2.00
1.33
Goals Std
1.45
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
85.4%
54.8%
Scored 2+ rate
58.5%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
31.7%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.60
Goals against per game
1.98
64.3%
Conceding rate
92.7%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.95
50.0%
Conceding rate
95.0%
42
History Matches
41
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.98
1.50
Conceded Std
1.26
52.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.0%
26.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.7%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
7.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
7.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
7.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
42
History Matches
41
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.92
0.48
Stability score
1.76
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
41
Eligible Matches
41
14
Lead Matches
11
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.79
13
Trailing Matches
17
30.8%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
202.3
Rest days
202.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
18
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.43
78.95
Portability Score
70.06
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
42
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-10.12
PPG-0.06
GF-0.43
GA-0.38
PPG0.70
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate28.4%
Failed-to-score rate18.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate45.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate28.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-1.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate5.8%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score8.88
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-10.12
Current Opponent ELO10.12
Current ELO Difference-20.24
Expected score-0.03
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
L
Spouwen-Mopertingen4–0Lyra-Lierse Berlaar7 Nov · away
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 58% · hit L
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar1–2Zelzate31 Oct · home
Pick: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 41% · missed W
Harelbeke0–3Lyra-Lierse Berlaar25 Oct · away
Pick: Harelbeke 50% · missed L
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar0–1Houtvenne17 Oct · home
Pick: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 42% · missed D
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar3–3Thes Sport29 Aug · home
Pick: Thes Sport 47% · missed Dessel Sport
W
Dessel Sport1–0Knokke7 Nov · home
Pick: Knokke 50% · missed L
Mandel United4–3Dessel Sport31 Oct · away
Pick: Mandel United 47% · hit D
Dessel Sport2–2Oud-Heverlee Leuven II24 Oct · home
Pick: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 46% · missed L
Dessel Sport3–4Spouwen-Mopertingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 51% · hit W
Tienen3–4Dessel Sport30 Aug · away
Pick: Tienen 54% · missed About this match
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar and Dessel Sport meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win 45.8%, draw 20.3%, Dessel Sport win 33.9%. The pick is Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.6%. Both teams to score: 60.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.