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First Amateur Division Belgium VV - 12 2026

Thes Sport vs Mandel United

Thes Sport Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mandel United Away · Elo 1,640
Gemeentelijk Sportpark, Tessenderlo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Thes Sport win
Thes Sport winPick
46.0%
Draw
25.2%
Mandel United win
28.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.0%
No52.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Thes Sport history48 matches
Mandel United history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Thes Sport are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mandel United are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,640 against 1,524. On rating alone Mandel United would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Mandel United score more

    1.44 goals a game over 48 matches for Thes Sport, against 1.82 over 38 for Mandel United.

  • Mandel United concede fewer

    Thes Sport concede 1.23 a game, Mandel United 0.63.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Thes Sport matches, against 47% for Mandel United. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Thes Sport
Mandel United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.2
ELO
1639.7
48
ELO · Matches
38
1524.2
Current Team ELO
1639.7
1639.7
Current Opponent ELO
1524.2
-115.5
Current ELO Difference
115.5
0.34
Expected score
0.66
48
History Matches
38
0.04
Residual Mean
0.18
52.53
Overperformance
61.50
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
38
1.50
PPG
2.24
39.6%
Win rate
65.8%
31.3%
Draw rate
26.3%
29.2%
Loss rate
7.9%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
20
1.52
PPG
2.40
37.0%
Win rate
75.0%
40.7%
Draw rate
15.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
10.0%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
27
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.44
Goals for per game
1.82
77.1%
Scoring rate
86.8%
54.2%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.80
81.5%
Scoring rate
85.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
45.0%
48
History Matches
38
1.44
Goals Mean
1.82
1.27
Goals Std
1.21
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
86.8%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
57.9%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
23.7%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
0.63
66.7%
Conceding rate
52.6%
1.15
Goals against per game
0.60
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
38
1.23
Conceded Mean
0.63
1.21
Conceded Std
0.67
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
10.5%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
0.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
38
0.99
Result entropy
0.75
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.37
0.81
Stability score
24.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
17
15
Lead Matches
8
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.92
12
Trailing Matches
3
8.3%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.24
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
97.13
Rest days
202.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.18
23
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.87
Portability PPG Range
0.18
56.61
Portability Score
85.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-115.5
PPG-0.74
GF-0.38
GA0.60
PPG-0.88
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.79
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.55
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate18.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches10
Result entropy0.24
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score-23.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches31
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.58
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.69
Portability Score-28.49
Rest days-105.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.97
Current Team ELO-115.5
Current Opponent ELO115.5
Current ELO Difference-231.0
Expected score-0.32
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-8.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Thes Sport

W
Houtvenne1–2Thes Sport7 Nov · away
Pick: Thes Sport 47% · hit
W
Thes Sport1–0Tienen30 Oct · home
Pick: Thes Sport 47% · hit
W
Spouwen-Mopertingen0–3Thes Sport23 Oct · away
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 40% · missed
D
Thes Sport2–2Cercle Brugge II17 Oct · home
Pick: Thes Sport 62% · missed
D
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar3–3Thes Sport29 Aug · away
Pick: Thes Sport 47% · missed

Mandel United

W
Mandel United3–1Cercle Brugge II7 Nov · home
Pick: Mandel United 48% · hit
W
Mandel United4–3Dessel Sport31 Oct · home
Pick: Mandel United 47% · hit
W
Tienen0–2Mandel United25 Oct · away
Pick: Tienen 41% · missed
W
Mandel United3–1Zelzate17 Oct · home
Pick: Mandel United 47% · hit
W
Harelbeke0–3Mandel United30 Aug · away
Pick: Harelbeke 44% · missed

About this match

Thes Sport and Mandel United meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Gemeentelijk Sportpark, Tessenderlo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Thes Sport win 46.0%, draw 25.2%, Mandel United win 28.9%. The pick is Thes Sport win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 48.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.