Rochefort vs Tubize
Match result probability Model pick: Tubize win
Rochefort win
29.3%
Draw
24.8%
Tubize winPick
45.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.2%
No44.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%
How much we know
Rochefort history51 matches
Tubize history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Tubize
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Tubize are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Tubize are rated 127 Elo points higher
Elo 1,603 against 1,476. On rating alone Tubize would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
-
Tubize score more
1.29 goals a game over 51 matches for Rochefort, against 1.78 over 50 for Tubize.
-
Tubize concede fewer
Rochefort concede 1.65 a game, Tubize 1.00.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
57% of Rochefort matches, against 54% for Tubize. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 1 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tubize@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1475.8
ELO
1603.2
51
ELO · Matches
50
1475.8
Current Team ELO
1603.2
1603.2
Current Opponent ELO
1475.8
-127.3
Current ELO Difference
127.3
0.32
Expected score
0.68
51
History Matches
50
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.10
48.79
Overperformance
56.88
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
2.30
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
50
1.14
PPG
1.92
29.4%
Win rate
54.0%
25.5%
Draw rate
30.0%
45.1%
Loss rate
16.0%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
26
1.11
PPG
1.77
25.9%
Win rate
46.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
38.5%
40.7%
Loss rate
15.4%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.78
70.6%
Scoring rate
82.0%
51.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.69
66.7%
Scoring rate
76.9%
55.6%
BTTS rate
53.8%
51
History Matches
50
1.29
Goals Mean
1.78
1.27
Goals Std
1.33
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
82.0%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
54.0%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
26.0%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.65
Goals against per game
1.00
76.5%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.74
Goals against per game
1.08
81.5%
Conceding rate
65.4%
51
History Matches
50
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.38
Conceded Std
0.98
49.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.0%
1.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
50
0.97
Result entropy
0.90
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.60
2.83
Stability score
10.15
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
49
10
Lead Matches
21
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.89
22
Trailing Matches
11
27.3%
Non-loss rate
63.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
105.1
Rest days
114.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.59
Portability PPG Range
0.49
67.70
Portability Score
71.35
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-127.3
PPG-0.78
GF-0.49
GA0.65
PPG-0.66
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate11.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate10.3%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.65
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate15.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches1
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score-7.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-3.65
Rest days-8.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-127.3
Current Opponent ELO127.3
Current ELO Difference-254.7
Expected score-0.35
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Rochefort
D
Flénu1–1Rochefort31 Oct · away
Pick: Rochefort 46% · missed W
Rochefort4–0Olympic Charleroi24 Oct · home
Pick: Rochefort 38% · hit L
Albert Quévy-Mons2–0Rochefort21 Oct · away
Pick: Albert Quévy-Mons 48% · hit W
Rochefort4–2Habay-la-Neuve29 Aug · home
Pick: Rochefort 51% · hit W
Union Saint-Gilloise II0–2Rochefort26 Aug · away
Pick: Rochefort 41% · hit Tubize
D
Tubize1–1Olympic Charleroi7 Nov · home
Pick: Tubize 51% · missed W
Tubize2–1Onhaye31 Oct · home
Pick: Tubize 54% · hit W
Flénu0–4Tubize25 Oct · away
Pick: Tubize 50% · hit L
Tubize0–1Meux17 Oct · home
Pick: Tubize 60% · missed W
Standard Liège II0–1Tubize30 Aug · away
Pick: Tubize 47% · hit About this match
Rochefort and Tubize meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Rochefort win 29.3%, draw 24.8%, Tubize win 45.9%. The pick is Tubize win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.