Heist vs Hoogstraten
Match result probability Model pick: Heist win
Heist winPick
56.4%
Draw
19.4%
Hoogstraten win
24.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes62.2%
No37.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.569.4%
Under 2.530.6%
How much we know
Heist history49 matches
Hoogstraten history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Heist
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.4%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Heist are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,566 against 1,551. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Heist score more
2.27 goals a game over 49 matches for Heist, against 1.68 over 44 for Hoogstraten.
-
Defences are close
Heist concede 1.35 a game, Hoogstraten 1.48.
-
Heist games more often go over 2.5 goals
76% of Heist matches, against 59% for Hoogstraten. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 1 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hoogstraten@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1566.2
ELO
1550.8
49
ELO · Matches
44
1566.2
Current Team ELO
1550.8
1550.8
Current Opponent ELO
1566.2
15.35
Current ELO Difference
-15.35
0.52
Expected score
0.48
49
History Matches
44
0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
55.70
Overperformance
53.69
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.90
2.00
Goals for per game
2.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
44
1.73
PPG
1.50
51.0%
Win rate
40.9%
20.4%
Draw rate
27.3%
28.6%
Loss rate
31.8%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
75.5%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
51.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
23
1.82
PPG
1.22
53.6%
Win rate
30.4%
21.4%
Draw rate
30.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
39.1%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
2.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
28
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.27
Goals for per game
1.68
81.6%
Scoring rate
77.3%
63.3%
BTTS rate
61.4%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.43
82.1%
Scoring rate
73.9%
53.6%
BTTS rate
65.2%
49
History Matches
44
2.27
Goals Mean
1.68
1.84
Goals Std
1.26
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.3%
55.1%
Scored 2+ rate
56.8%
38.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
1.48
77.6%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.74
64.3%
Conceding rate
91.3%
49
History Matches
44
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.17
Conceded Std
1.16
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
44
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
2.49
Goal Difference Std
1.83
6.65
Stability score
1.30
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
41
Eligible Matches
43
15
Lead Matches
16
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.77
10
Trailing Matches
11
30.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
105.2
Rest days
202.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.89
Portability PPG Range
0.70
42.40
Portability Score
58.82
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO15.35
PPG0.23
GF0.58
GA-0.13
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate27.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.58
Scored 1+ rate4.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate13.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.66
Stability score5.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.30
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate11.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate10.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range1.19
Portability Score-16.42
Rest days-97.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO15.35
Current Opponent ELO-15.35
Current ELO Difference30.69
Expected score0.04
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Heist
L
Merelbeke2–1Heist6 Nov · away
Pick: Heist 41% · missed W
Heist4–0Houtvenne31 Oct · home
Pick: Heist 57% · hit W
Zelzate1–5Heist24 Oct · away
Pick: Heist 47% · hit W
Heist4–0Tienen21 Oct · home
Pick: Heist 55% · hit L
Heist0–1Antwerp17 Oct · home
Pick: Antwerp 45% · hit Hoogstraten
L
Hoogstraten0–1Spouwen-Mopertingen31 Oct · home
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 42% · hit W
Cercle Brugge II1–4Hoogstraten25 Oct · away
Pick: Hoogstraten 47% · hit D
Hoogstraten1–1Roeselare Daisel17 Oct · home
Pick: Hoogstraten 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Heist and Hoogstraten meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum, Heist-Op-Den-Berg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Heist win 56.4%, draw 19.4%, Hoogstraten win 24.3%. The pick is Heist win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.4%. Both teams to score: 62.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.