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Segunda División Spain Round 14 2026

Valladolid vs Castellón

Valladolid Home · Elo 1,444
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Castellón Away · Elo 1,573
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Castellón win
Valladolid win
25.7%
Draw
23.7%
Castellón winPick
50.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%

How much we know

Valladolid history71 matches
Castellón history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Castellón are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Castellón are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,444. On rating alone Castellón would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Castellón score far more

    1.01 goals a game over 71 matches for Valladolid, against 1.59 over 75 for Castellón.

  • Castellón concede fewer

    Valladolid concede 1.68 a game, Castellón 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Valladolid matches, against 52% for Castellón. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Valladolid
Castellón@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.1
ELO
1572.7
71
ELO · Matches
75
1444.1
Current Team ELO
1572.7
1572.7
Current Opponent ELO
1444.1
-128.6
Current ELO Difference
128.6
0.32
Expected score
0.68
71
History Matches
75
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
46.36
Overperformance
52.94
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
75
0.90
PPG
1.53
23.9%
Win rate
41.3%
18.3%
Draw rate
29.3%
57.7%
Loss rate
29.3%
64.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
42
1.10
PPG
1.19
29.0%
Win rate
28.6%
22.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
48.4%
Loss rate
38.1%
58.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
38.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
31
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.01
Goals for per game
1.59
57.7%
Scoring rate
78.7%
42.3%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.29
51.6%
Scoring rate
71.4%
35.5%
BTTS rate
59.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
71
History Matches
75
1.01
Goals Mean
1.59
1.14
Goals Std
1.23
57.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
25.4%
Scored 2+ rate
48.0%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
22.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.29
78.9%
Conceding rate
74.7%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.38
74.2%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
71
History Matches
75
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.51
Conceded Std
1.12
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.7%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
48.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
48.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
75
0.88
Result entropy
0.99
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.47
11.69
Stability score
1.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
75
15
Lead Matches
26
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.82
26
Trailing Matches
15
19.2%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
3.8%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.92
Rest days
82.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
40
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
26
Long Rest History Matches
31
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.94
Portability PPG Range
0.47
39.98
Portability Score
71.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-128.6
PPG-0.63
GF-0.57
GA0.38
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.09
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate20.9%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate19.8%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.39
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.50
Stability score10.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.55
Portability PPG Range1.47
Portability Score-31.14
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.08
Current Team ELO-128.6
Current Opponent ELO128.6
Current ELO Difference-257.2
Expected score-0.35
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Valladolid

W
Valladolid4–3Leganes2 Nov · home
Pick: Leganes 48% · missed
L
Granada CF2–1Valladolid23 Oct · away
Pick: Granada CF 59% · hit
L
Valladolid2–3Eldense18 Oct · home
Pick: Valladolid 39% · missed
W
Valladolid5–0Albacete12 Oct · home
Pick: Albacete 44% · missed
D
Las Palmas2–2Valladolid4 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas 61% · missed

Castellón

D
Burgos1–1Castellón1 Nov · away
Pick: Castellón 39% · missed
W
Conquense0–3Castellón29 Oct · away
Pick: Castellón 46% · hit
W
Castellón4–0Sporting Gijon25 Oct · home
Pick: Castellón 41% · hit
W
Las Palmas0–3Castellón17 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas 44% · missed
D
Castellón1–1AD Ceuta FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Castellón 57% · missed

About this match

Valladolid and Castellón meet in Segunda División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Valladolid win 25.7%, draw 23.7%, Castellón win 50.6%. The pick is Castellón win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.7%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.