Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
Match result probability Model pick: Millonarios win
Millonarios winPick
60.5%
Draw
21.3%
Alianza Valledupar win
18.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.1%
No49.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%
How much we know
Millonarios history76 matches
Alianza Valledupar history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Millonarios
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.5%). Picks in that band won 63.7% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 1,884 matches.
Why Millonarios are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Millonarios are rated 72 Elo points higher
Elo 1,536 against 1,464. On rating alone Millonarios would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Millonarios score more
1.39 goals a game over 76 matches for Millonarios, against 1.23 over 64 for Alianza Valledupar.
-
Millonarios concede fewer
Millonarios concede 1.07 a game, Alianza Valledupar 1.27.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
46% of Millonarios matches, against 44% for Alianza Valledupar. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alianza Valledupar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1536.2
ELO
1464.0
76
ELO · Matches
64
1536.2
Current Team ELO
1464.0
1464.0
Current Opponent ELO
1536.2
72.20
Current ELO Difference
-72.20
0.60
Expected score
0.40
76
History Matches
64
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.24
Overperformance
48.70
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.24
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals 90
76
Matches
64
1.50
PPG
1.31
40.8%
Win rate
32.8%
27.6%
Draw rate
32.8%
31.6%
Loss rate
34.4%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
46.1%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.6%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals 100
40
Matches
28
1.80
PPG
0.86
50.0%
Win rate
17.9%
30.0%
Draw rate
32.1%
20.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
57.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
42.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
40
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.23
71.1%
Scoring rate
70.3%
47.4%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.43
Goals for per game
0.96
72.5%
Scoring rate
60.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.47
Goals for per game
0.77
84.2%
Scoring rate
59.1%
57.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
76
History Matches
64
1.39
Goals Mean
1.23
1.37
Goals Std
1.20
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
42.1%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.27
63.2%
Conceding rate
68.8%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.50
63.2%
Conceding rate
81.8%
76
History Matches
64
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.27
0.98
Conceded Std
1.18
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
76
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.70
1.22
Stability score
0.02
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
76
Eligible Matches
64
22
Lead Matches
18
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
22
37.5%
Non-loss rate
40.9%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.02
Rest days
82.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.38
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals 170
19
Matches
22
1.42
PPG
0.82
36.8%
Win rate
13.6%
31.6%
Draw rate
40.9%
31.6%
Loss rate
45.5%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
19
Current Competition Matches
22
1.42
Current Competition PPG
0.82
0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.73
7
Competition Season Count
4
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.35
2.50
Portability PPG Range
0.93
39.91
Portability Score
58.65
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
76
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO72.20
PPG0.19
GF0.16
GA-0.20
PPG0.60
PPG0.94
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate35.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate0.7%
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.27
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score1.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.24
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate4.0%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate8.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.10
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range1.57
Portability Score-18.74
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO72.20
Current Opponent ELO-72.20
Current ELO Difference144.4
Expected score0.20
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Millonarios
D
Millonarios0–0America de Cali5 Nov · home
Pick: America de Cali 37% · missed D
Millonarios1–1Once Caldas21 Oct · home
Pick: Millonarios 49% · missed D
Millonarios0–0Internacional de Bogota30 Aug · home
Pick: Millonarios 59% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Alianza Valledupar
L
Independiente Medellin2–1Alianza Valledupar1 Nov · away
Pick: Independiente Medellin 54% · hit L
Once Caldas1–0Alianza Valledupar28 Oct · away
Pick: Once Caldas 59% · hit W
Alianza Valledupar1–0Internacional de Bogota25 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza Valledupar 46% · hit W
Deportivo Pasto0–1Alianza Valledupar20 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 50% · missed L
Alianza Valledupar1–5Atletico Nacional30 Aug · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 55% · hit About this match
Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar meet in Primera A on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Millonarios win 60.5%, draw 21.3%, Alianza Valledupar win 18.2%. The pick is Millonarios win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.