Montenegro vs Latvia
Match result probability Model pick: Latvia win
Montenegro win
34.7%
Draw
28.5%
Latvia winPick
36.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.1%
No49.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%
How much we know
Montenegro history14 matches
Latvia history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Latvia
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.
Why Latvia are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,495 against 1,471. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Montenegro score far more
1.36 goals a game over 14 matches for Montenegro, against 0.57 over 14 for Latvia.
-
Latvia concede fewer
Montenegro concede 1.79 a game, Latvia 1.21.
-
Montenegro games more often go over 2.5 goals
64% of Montenegro matches, against 29% for Latvia. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 9 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Latvia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1494.9
ELO
1470.9
14
ELO · Matches
14
1494.9
Current Team ELO
1470.9
1470.9
Current Opponent ELO
1494.9
23.98
Current ELO Difference
-23.98
0.53
Expected score
0.47
14
History Matches
14
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.10
49.78
Overperformance
45.71
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
1.30
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
14
1.43
PPG
1.00
42.9%
Win rate
21.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
35.7%
42.9%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
7
1.63
PPG
1.14
50.0%
Win rate
28.6%
12.5%
Draw rate
28.6%
37.5%
Loss rate
42.9%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
8
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.36
Goals for per game
0.57
71.4%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.57
87.5%
Scoring rate
57.1%
62.5%
BTTS rate
28.6%
14
History Matches
14
1.36
Goals Mean
0.57
0.97
Goals Std
0.62
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
7.1%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
0.57
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.79
Goals against per game
1.21
78.6%
Conceding rate
64.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
57.1%
14
History Matches
14
1.79
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.32
Conceded Std
1.37
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
14
0.91
Result entropy
0.97
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.59
8.59
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
14
4
Lead Matches
1
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
0.00
5
Trailing Matches
5
20.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.21
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
160.1
Rest days
156.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.80
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.31
Portability PPG Std
—
0.63
Portability PPG Range
—
61.54
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO23.98
PPG0.43
GF0.79
GA0.57
PPG0.48
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.79
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate21.4%
Scored 2+ rate50.0%
Scored 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score5.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.50
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days3.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.95
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO23.98
Current Opponent ELO-23.98
Current ELO Difference47.96
Expected score0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance4.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Montenegro
D
Montenegro0–0Armenia5 Oct · home
Pick: Montenegro 53% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Latvia
L
Cyprus2–1Latvia5 Oct · away
Pick: Cyprus 36% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Montenegro and Latvia meet in UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Montenegro win 34.7%, draw 28.5%, Latvia win 36.8%. The pick is Latvia win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.