ScoreProb
UEFA Nations League World League B - 5 2026

Scotland vs FYR Macedonia

Scotland Home · Elo 1,516
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
FYR Macedonia Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Scotland win
Scotland winPick
56.2%
Draw
20.9%
FYR Macedonia win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Scotland history17 matches
FYR Macedonia history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.2%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Scotland are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,516 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scotland score far more

    1.65 goals a game over 17 matches for Scotland, against 1.00 over 14 for FYR Macedonia.

  • Scotland concede fewer

    Scotland concede 1.18 a game, FYR Macedonia 1.43.

  • Scotland games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Scotland matches, against 43% for FYR Macedonia. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Scotland
FYR Macedonia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.5
ELO
1496.3
17
ELO · Matches
14
1516.5
Current Team ELO
1496.3
1496.3
Current Opponent ELO
1516.5
20.11
Current ELO Difference
-20.11
0.53
Expected score
0.47
17
History Matches
14
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
52.95
Overperformance
48.37
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.20
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.32
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
17
Matches
14
1.65
PPG
1.14
52.9%
Win rate
21.4%
5.9%
Draw rate
50.0%
41.2%
Loss rate
28.6%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
9
1.20
PPG
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
22.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
60.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.70
10
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.65
Goals for per game
1.00
64.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
35.3%
BTTS rate
35.7%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.67
50.0%
Scoring rate
44.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
22.2%
17
History Matches
14
1.65
Goals Mean
1.00
1.57
Goals Std
1.36
64.7%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
14.3%
29.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.43
64.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.89
100.0%
Conceding rate
44.4%
17
History Matches
14
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.15
Conceded Std
2.06
29.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
17
History Matches
14
0.79
Result entropy
0.94
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.69
20.93
Stability score
5.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
14
7
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
141.9
Rest days
165.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
3
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
8
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.78
51.13
Portability Score
56.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
17
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO20.11
PPG0.50
GF0.65
GA-0.25
PPG0.20
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.56
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.65
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate32.8%
Scored 3+ rate15.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.91
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate0.8%
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.31
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.55
Stability score15.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.84
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.39
Portability Score-5.12
Rest days-23.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.07
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO20.11
Current Opponent ELO-20.11
Current ELO Difference40.22
Expected score0.06
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance4.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Scotland

L
Scotland1–2Slovenia6 Oct · home
Pick: Scotland 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FYR Macedonia

L
Switzerland3–0FYR Macedonia6 Oct · away
Pick: Switzerland 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Scotland and FYR Macedonia meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Scotland win 56.2%, draw 20.9%, FYR Macedonia win 22.9%. The pick is Scotland win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.