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Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 14 2026

Septemvri Dragoevo vs Ludogorets III

Septemvri Dragoevo Home · Elo 1,507
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ludogorets III Away · Elo 1,668
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ludogorets III win
Septemvri Dragoevo win
35.7%
Draw
21.7%
Ludogorets III winPick
42.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.2%
No35.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%

How much we know

Septemvri Dragoevo history1 match
Ludogorets III history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Ludogorets III are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ludogorets III are rated 162 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,668 against 1,507. On rating alone Ludogorets III would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Septemvri Dragoevo score more

    4.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Septemvri Dragoevo, against 2.73 over 44 for Ludogorets III.

  • Ludogorets III concede fewer

    Septemvri Dragoevo concede 2.00 a game, Ludogorets III 0.64.

  • Septemvri Dragoevo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Septemvri Dragoevo matches, against 59% for Ludogorets III. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Septemvri Dragoevo
Ludogorets III@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.6
ELO
1668.3
1
ELO · Matches
44
1506.6
Current Team ELO
1668.3
1668.3
Current Opponent ELO
1506.6
-161.6
Current ELO Difference
161.6
0.28
Expected score
0.72
1
History Matches
44
0.42
Residual Mean
0.19
51.99
Overperformance
62.93
0.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.40
4.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
2.40
4.00
Goals for per game
3.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.70
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
4.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.82
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
44
3.00
PPG
2.36
100.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
11.4%
0.0%
Loss rate
13.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
22
3.00
PPG
2.23
100.0%
Win rate
72.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
4.5%
0.0%
Loss rate
22.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
1
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
4.00
Goals for per game
2.73
100.0%
Scoring rate
86.4%
100.0%
BTTS rate
43.2%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.68
100.0%
Scoring rate
81.8%
100.0%
BTTS rate
36.4%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
44
4.00
Goals Mean
2.73
—
Goals Std
2.35
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.4%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
65.9%
100.0%
Scored 3+ rate
47.7%
4.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
0.64
100.0%
Conceding rate
54.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.68
100.0%
Conceding rate
54.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
44
2.00
Conceded Mean
0.64
—
Conceded Std
0.68
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
6.8%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.3%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
44
0.00
Result entropy
0.67
—
Goal Difference Std
2.59
100.0
Stability score
33.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Non-loss rateTrailing Win Rate
1
Eligible Matches
6
0
Lead Matches
3
—
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.78
0
Trailing Matches
0
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
2.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
2.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.17
2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
0
Normal Rest History Matches
25
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.48
0
Long Rest History Matches
15
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.18
—
Portability PPG Range
0.37
—
Portability Score
73.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-161.6
PPG0.64
GF1.27
GA1.36
PPG0.00
PPG0.77
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-43
Clean-sheet rate-0.45
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.45
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-43
Goals Mean1.27
Scored 1+ rate13.6%
Scored 2+ rate34.1%
Scored 3+ rate52.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
History Matches-43
Conceded Mean1.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.45
Conceded 2+ rate93.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
History Matches-43
Result entropy-0.67
Stability score66.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.46
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-3
Trailing Matches0
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean1.17
First Half Goals Against Mean1.83
Second Half Goals For Mean1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.83
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Long Rest History Matches-15
Current Team ELO-161.6
Current Opponent ELO161.6
Current ELO Difference-323.3
Expected score-0.43
History Matches-43
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance-10.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Septemvri Dragoevo

L
Ustrem Donchevo4–2Septemvri Dragoevo31 Oct · away
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 41% · hit
W
Septemvri Dragoevo4–1Fratria II24 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Dragoevo 69% · hit
L
Septemvri Dragoevo0–2Botev Novi Pazar21 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Novi Pazar 44% · hit
W
Dorostol0–1Septemvri Dragoevo17 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Dragoevo 60% · hit
L
Olympic Varna4–1Septemvri Dragoevo26 Aug · away
Pick: Olympic Varna 49% · hit

Ludogorets III

W
Ludogorets III3–0Dorostol24 Oct · home
Pick: Ludogorets III 88% · hit
W
Benkovski Isperih0–1Ludogorets III21 Oct · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 45% · hit
W
Devnya 20050–3Ludogorets III17 Oct · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 45% · hit
W
Ludogorets III5–1Olympic Varna30 Aug · home
Pick: Ludogorets III 79% · hit
L
Aksakovo6–1Ludogorets III26 Aug · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 68% · missed

About this match

Septemvri Dragoevo and Ludogorets III meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Septemvri Dragoevo win 35.7%, draw 21.7%, Ludogorets III win 42.7%. The pick is Ludogorets III win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.7%. Both teams to score: 64.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.