ScoreProb
Log in
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 14 2026

Volov Shumen vs Svetkavitsa 14

Volov Shumen Home · Elo 1,614
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Svetkavitsa 14 Away · Elo 1,444
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Volov Shumen win
Volov Shumen winPick
47.7%
Draw
25.0%
Svetkavitsa 14 win
27.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.6%
No59.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

How much we know

Volov Shumen history25 matches
Svetkavitsa 14 history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Volov Shumen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Volov Shumen are rated 169 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,444. On rating alone Volov Shumen would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Volov Shumen score far more

    3.12 goals a game over 25 matches for Volov Shumen, against 0.77 over 31 for Svetkavitsa 14.

  • Volov Shumen concede fewer

    Volov Shumen concede 0.72 a game, Svetkavitsa 14 1.35.

  • Volov Shumen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of Volov Shumen matches, against 32% for Svetkavitsa 14. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Volov Shumen
Svetkavitsa 14@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1613.8
ELO
1444.3
25
ELO · Matches
31
1613.8
Current Team ELO
1444.3
1444.3
Current Opponent ELO
1613.8
169.4
Current ELO Difference
-169.4
0.73
Expected score
0.27
25
History Matches
31
0.22
Residual Mean
-0.10
62.44
Overperformance
44.14
0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
4.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.20
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.80
PPG
0.90
3.90
Goals for per game
1.00
0.30
Goals against per game
1.30
90.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
2.59
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
31
2.28
PPG
0.94
72.0%
Win rate
22.6%
12.0%
Draw rate
25.8%
16.0%
Loss rate
51.6%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
32.3%
56.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
2.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
17
2.67
PPG
0.65
83.3%
Win rate
11.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
29.4%
0.0%
Loss rate
58.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
29.4%
83.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
12
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
3.12
Goals for per game
0.77
92.0%
Scoring rate
48.4%
36.0%
BTTS rate
29.0%
3.83
Goals for per game
0.59
100.0%
Scoring rate
41.2%
41.7%
BTTS rate
29.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
25
History Matches
31
3.12
Goals Mean
0.77
2.18
Goals Std
1.01
92.0%
Scored 1+ rate
48.4%
76.0%
Scored 2+ rate
19.4%
52.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
3.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.72
Goals against per game
1.35
44.0%
Conceding rate
67.7%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.59
41.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
25
History Matches
31
0.72
Conceded Mean
1.35
0.92
Conceded Std
1.38
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
51.6%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
58.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
51.6%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
58.8%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
31
0.71
Result entropy
0.93
2.74
Goal Difference Std
1.90
28.62
Stability score
6.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
12
Eligible Matches
7
7
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
2
66.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
12
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
1.08
First Half Goals For Mean
0.14
0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
1.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
13
Normal Rest History Matches
15
2.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
7
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviationPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
4.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO169.4
PPG1.34
GF2.35
GA-0.63
PPG-2.00
PPG2.02
PPG1.00
PPG1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.44
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate28.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.59
History Matches-6
Goals Mean2.35
Goals Std1.17
Scored 1+ rate43.6%
Scored 2+ rate56.6%
Scored 3+ rate45.5%
Venue Goals Mean3.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.40
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.22
Goal Difference Std0.85
Stability score22.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.88
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.94
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.56
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.90
Current Team ELO169.4
Current Opponent ELO-169.4
Current ELO Difference338.9
Expected score0.45
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.32
Overperformance18.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Volov Shumen

W
Volov Shumen2–1Olympic Varna31 Oct · home
Pick: Volov Shumen 73% · hit
D
Aksakovo1–1Volov Shumen24 Oct · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 66% · missed
W
Volov Shumen2–1Chernolomets 191921 Oct · home
Pick: Volov Shumen 48% · hit
L
Volov Shumen0–2Chernomorets 1919 Burgas4 Oct · home
Pick: Volov Shumen 45% · missed
W
Dorostol0–3Volov Shumen29 Aug · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 80% · hit

Svetkavitsa 14

L
Botev Novi Pazar2–1Svetkavitsa 1424 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Novi Pazar 41% · hit
W
Svetkavitsa 143–0Olympic Varna17 Oct · home
Pick: Svetkavitsa 14 60% · hit
W
Ustrem Donchevo2–3Svetkavitsa 1429 Aug · away
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 40% · missed
W
Svetkavitsa 144–0Fratria II26 Aug · home
Pick: Svetkavitsa 14 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Volov Shumen and Svetkavitsa 14 meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Volov Shumen win 47.7%, draw 25.0%, Svetkavitsa 14 win 27.3%. The pick is Volov Shumen win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 40.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.