ScoreProb
Log in
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 14 2026

Ustrem Donchevo vs Chernolomets 1919

Ustrem Donchevo Home · Elo 1,504
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chernolomets 1919 Away · Elo 1,599
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chernolomets 1919 win
Ustrem Donchevo win
30.5%
Draw
21.6%
Chernolomets 1919 winPick
47.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.3%
Under 2.529.7%

How much we know

Ustrem Donchevo history46 matches
Chernolomets 1919 history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Chernolomets 1919 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chernolomets 1919 are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,504. On rating alone Chernolomets 1919 would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Chernolomets 1919 score more

    1.91 goals a game over 46 matches for Ustrem Donchevo, against 2.26 over 43 for Chernolomets 1919.

  • Chernolomets 1919 concede fewer

    Ustrem Donchevo concede 2.11 a game, Chernolomets 1919 1.21.

  • Ustrem Donchevo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    83% of Ustrem Donchevo matches, against 74% for Chernolomets 1919. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ustrem Donchevo
Chernolomets 1919@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.3
ELO
1598.6
46
ELO · Matches
43
1504.3
Current Team ELO
1598.6
1598.6
Current Opponent ELO
1504.3
-94.36
Current ELO Difference
94.36
0.37
Expected score
0.63
46
History Matches
43
0.00
Residual Mean
0.10
50.27
Overperformance
57.12
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.30
Goals for per game
2.50
2.40
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.01
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.68
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
43
1.43
PPG
2.02
43.5%
Win rate
62.8%
13.0%
Draw rate
14.0%
43.5%
Loss rate
23.3%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.4%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
74.4%
58.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.74
PPG
2.00
52.2%
Win rate
65.2%
17.4%
Draw rate
4.3%
30.4%
Loss rate
30.4%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
73.9%
65.2%
Over 3.5 rate
47.8%
2.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.81
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
2.26
76.1%
Scoring rate
86.0%
67.4%
BTTS rate
44.2%
2.26
Goals for per game
2.04
78.3%
Scoring rate
82.6%
65.2%
BTTS rate
34.8%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
43
1.91
Goals Mean
2.26
1.64
Goals Std
1.63
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
62.8%
39.1%
Scored 3+ rate
44.2%
2.26
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.11
Goals against per game
1.21
87.0%
Conceding rate
55.8%
2.13
Goals against per game
1.43
78.3%
Conceding rate
52.2%
4.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
43
2.11
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.64
Conceded Std
1.49
54.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.9%
34.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.9%
2.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.2%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.2%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
43
0.90
Result entropy
0.82
2.64
Goal Difference Std
2.58
9.89
Stability score
17.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
11
2
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.78
3
Trailing Matches
3
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
1.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
30
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
13
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.63
Portability PPG Range
0.72
61.46
Portability Score
58.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-94.36
PPG-0.59
GF-0.34
GA0.90
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.26
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Failed-to-score rate10.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.90
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Conceded 2+ rate26.4%
Conceded 3+ rate13.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches3
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-7.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score3.36
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-94.36
Current Opponent ELO94.36
Current ELO Difference-188.7
Expected score-0.27
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-6.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ustrem Donchevo

W
Ustrem Donchevo4–2Septemvri Dragoevo31 Oct · home
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 41% · hit
W
Fratria II1–2Ustrem Donchevo17 Oct · away
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 56% · hit
L
Ustrem Donchevo2–3Svetkavitsa 1429 Aug · home
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chernolomets 1919

D
Dorostol1–1Chernolomets 191931 Oct · away
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 78% · missed
W
Chernolomets 19193–1Devnya 200524 Oct · home
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 57% · hit
L
Volov Shumen2–1Chernolomets 191921 Oct · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 48% · hit
D
Septemvri Tervel0–0Chernolomets 191917 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 54% · missed
D
Chernolomets 19191–1Aksakovo29 Aug · home
Pick: Chernolomets 1919 70% · missed

About this match

Ustrem Donchevo and Chernolomets 1919 meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ustrem Donchevo win 30.5%, draw 21.6%, Chernolomets 1919 win 47.9%. The pick is Chernolomets 1919 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.3%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.