ScoreProb
Log in
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 14 2026

Fratria II vs Chernomorets Balchik

Fratria II Home · Elo 1,396
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chernomorets Balchik Away · Elo 1,702
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chernomorets Balchik win
Fratria II win
7.9%
Draw
9.4%
Chernomorets Balchik winPick
82.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.3%
No53.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.0%
Under 2.530.0%

How much we know

Fratria II history39 matches
Chernomorets Balchik history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (82.7%). Picks in that band won 83.1% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 177 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Chernomorets Balchik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chernomorets Balchik are rated 307 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,702 against 1,396. On rating alone Chernomorets Balchik would be expected to take 85% of the points on offer.

  • Chernomorets Balchik score far more

    1.26 goals a game over 39 matches for Fratria II, against 2.38 over 48 for Chernomorets Balchik.

  • Chernomorets Balchik concede fewer

    Fratria II concede 2.59 a game, Chernomorets Balchik 0.42.

  • Fratria II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Fratria II matches, against 60% for Chernomorets Balchik. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fratria II
Chernomorets Balchik@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1396.0
ELO
1702.5
39
ELO · Matches
48
1396.0
Current Team ELO
1702.5
1702.5
Current Opponent ELO
1396.0
-306.5
Current ELO Difference
306.5
0.15
Expected score
0.85
39
History Matches
48
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.20
42.07
Overperformance
64.13
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
4.00
Goals against per game
0.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.90
2.90
Goals against per game
0.10
20.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
2.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.81
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.10
2.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.30
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
3.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
48
0.82
PPG
2.44
23.1%
Win rate
77.1%
12.8%
Draw rate
12.5%
64.1%
Loss rate
10.4%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.4%
51.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
2.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
26
0.91
PPG
2.31
27.3%
Win rate
73.1%
9.1%
Draw rate
11.5%
63.6%
Loss rate
15.4%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
63.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
3.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
22
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
2.38
61.5%
Scoring rate
89.6%
48.7%
BTTS rate
25.0%
1.55
Goals for per game
2.35
72.7%
Scoring rate
80.8%
59.1%
BTTS rate
19.2%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
39
History Matches
48
1.26
Goals Mean
2.38
1.56
Goals Std
1.48
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
89.6%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
52.1%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
2.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.59
Goals against per game
0.42
84.6%
Conceding rate
33.3%
2.82
Goals against per game
0.42
86.4%
Conceding rate
34.6%
6.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
39
History Matches
48
2.59
Conceded Mean
0.42
2.01
Conceded Std
0.64
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
8.3%
46.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
2.82
Venue Conceded Mean
0.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
10.4%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
65.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
10.4%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
65.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
48
0.81
Result entropy
0.63
2.78
Goal Difference Std
1.77
19.28
Stability score
36.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
17
1
Lead Matches
9
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.85
6
Trailing Matches
1
16.7%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
1.11
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.06
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.54
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.12
Portability PPG Range
0.18
89.55
Portability Score
84.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-306.5
PPG-1.62
GF-1.12
GA2.17
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.40
PPG-2.00
PPG-2.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.51
Failed-to-score rate28.0%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.52
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-1.12
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.28
Scored 2+ rate-0.36
Scored 3+ rate-0.34
Venue Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean2.17
Conceded Std1.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.51
Conceded 2+ rate58.3%
Conceded 3+ rate46.2%
Venue Conceded Mean2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.82
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std1.01
Stability score-17.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.69
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.78
Lead Points Retention-0.52
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.83
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score4.65
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.85
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.53
Current Team ELO-306.5
Current Opponent ELO306.5
Current ELO Difference-613.0
Expected score-0.71
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.32
Overperformance-22.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fratria II

L
Septemvri Dragoevo4–1Fratria II24 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Dragoevo 69% · hit
L
Fratria II1–2Ustrem Donchevo17 Oct · home
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 56% · hit
L
Svetkavitsa 144–0Fratria II26 Aug · away
Pick: Svetkavitsa 14 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chernomorets Balchik

W
Devnya 20050–4Chernomorets Balchik31 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 38% · hit
W
Chernomorets Balchik2–0Septemvri Tervel24 Oct · home
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 51% · hit
W
Riltzi0–3Chernomorets Balchik21 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 68% · hit
L
Benkovski Isperih2–0Chernomorets Balchik18 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 54% · missed
W
Cherno more II0–1Chernomorets Balchik29 Aug · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 54% · hit

About this match

Fratria II and Chernomorets Balchik meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Fratria II win 7.9%, draw 9.4%, Chernomorets Balchik win 82.7%. The pick is Chernomorets Balchik win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.0%. Both teams to score: 46.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.