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Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 14 2026

Septemvri Tervel vs Olympic Varna

Septemvri Tervel Home · Elo 1,649
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olympic Varna Away · Elo 1,469
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Septemvri Tervel win
Septemvri Tervel winPick
71.8%
Draw
15.6%
Olympic Varna win
12.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.5%
Under 2.523.5%

How much we know

Septemvri Tervel history47 matches
Olympic Varna history23 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.8%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why Septemvri Tervel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Septemvri Tervel are rated 180 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,649 against 1,469. On rating alone Septemvri Tervel would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Septemvri Tervel score more

    2.45 goals a game over 47 matches for Septemvri Tervel, against 1.91 over 23 for Olympic Varna.

  • Septemvri Tervel concede fewer

    Septemvri Tervel concede 0.74 a game, Olympic Varna 2.70.

  • Olympic Varna games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Septemvri Tervel matches, against 83% for Olympic Varna. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Septemvri Tervel
Olympic Varna@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1649.1
ELO
1469.3
47
ELO · Matches
23
1649.1
Current Team ELO
1469.3
1469.3
Current Opponent ELO
1649.1
179.8
Current ELO Difference
-179.8
0.74
Expected score
0.26
47
History Matches
23
0.16
Residual Mean
-0.07
61.31
Overperformance
46.35
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
2.10
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.61
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
23
2.30
PPG
1.17
72.3%
Win rate
34.8%
12.8%
Draw rate
13.0%
14.9%
Loss rate
52.2%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
53.2%
Over 2.5 rate
82.6%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.9%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
12
2.36
PPG
1.17
76.0%
Win rate
33.3%
8.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
16.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
3.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.52
25
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.45
Goals for per game
1.91
83.0%
Scoring rate
69.6%
36.2%
BTTS rate
60.9%
2.80
Goals for per game
1.50
84.0%
Scoring rate
58.3%
32.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
23
2.45
Goals Mean
1.91
2.11
Goals Std
2.36
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
59.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
38.3%
Scored 3+ rate
34.8%
2.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.74
Goals against per game
2.70
51.1%
Conceding rate
87.0%
0.72
Goals against per game
3.17
48.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
23
0.74
Conceded Mean
2.70
0.93
Conceded Std
2.20
14.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
73.9%
6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.8%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
3.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
48.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
23
0.71
Result entropy
0.89
2.55
Goal Difference Std
3.86
28.95
Stability score
11.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
12
Eligible Matches
6
3
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.00
5
Trailing Matches
2
60.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
40.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
12
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
13
2.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.77
16
Long Rest History Matches
8
2.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.10
Portability PPG Std
—
0.21
Portability PPG Range
—
82.87
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
23
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO179.8
PPG1.12
GF0.53
GA-1.95
PPG-2.00
PPG1.19
PPG-0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate35.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate35.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches24
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate13.4%
Scored 2+ rate16.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches24
Conceded Mean-1.95
Conceded Std-1.26
Clean-sheet rate35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.59
Conceded 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Conceded Mean-2.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.44
History Matches24
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std-1.30
Stability score17.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.08
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate100.0%
Lead Points Retention1.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate60.0%
Trailing Win Rate40.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.83
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.42
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.94
Current Team ELO179.8
Current Opponent ELO-179.8
Current ELO Difference359.6
Expected score0.48
History Matches24
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance14.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Septemvri Tervel

W
Septemvri Tervel1–0Cherno more II31 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 57% · hit
L
Chernomorets Balchik2–0Septemvri Tervel24 Oct · away
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 51% · hit
W
Dorostol0–1Septemvri Tervel21 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 81% · hit
D
Septemvri Tervel0–0Chernolomets 191917 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Tervel 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Olympic Varna

L
Volov Shumen2–1Olympic Varna31 Oct · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 73% · hit
W
Olympic Varna2–0Riltzi24 Oct · home
Pick: Olympic Varna 55% · hit
L
Svetkavitsa 143–0Olympic Varna17 Oct · away
Pick: Svetkavitsa 14 60% · hit
L
Ludogorets III5–1Olympic Varna30 Aug · away
Pick: Ludogorets III 79% · hit
W
Olympic Varna4–1Septemvri Dragoevo26 Aug · home
Pick: Olympic Varna 49% · hit

About this match

Septemvri Tervel and Olympic Varna meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Septemvri Tervel win 71.8%, draw 15.6%, Olympic Varna win 12.6%. The pick is Septemvri Tervel win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.5%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.