ScoreProb
Log in
League One England Round 15 2026

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth

Sheffield Wednesday Home · Elo 1,351
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Plymouth Away · Elo 1,598
Hillsborough, Sheffield Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sheffield Wednesday win
Sheffield Wednesday winPick
40.6%
Draw
26.1%
Plymouth win
33.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Sheffield Wednesday history76 matches
Plymouth history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Sheffield Wednesday are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Plymouth are rated 247 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,351. On rating alone Plymouth would be expected to take 81% of the points on offer.

  • Plymouth score far more

    0.76 goals a game over 76 matches for Sheffield Wednesday, against 1.69 over 87 for Plymouth.

  • Plymouth concede fewer

    Sheffield Wednesday concede 1.78 a game, Plymouth 1.37.

  • Plymouth games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Sheffield Wednesday matches, against 59% for Plymouth. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sheffield Wednesday
Plymouth@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1350.9
ELO
1597.9
76
ELO · Matches
87
1350.9
Current Team ELO
1597.9
1597.9
Current Opponent ELO
1350.9
-247.0
Current ELO Difference
247.0
0.19
Expected score
0.81
76
History Matches
87
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.05
42.55
Overperformance
54.20
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
87
0.63
PPG
1.63
11.8%
Win rate
49.4%
27.6%
Draw rate
14.9%
60.5%
Loss rate
35.6%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.6%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
46
0.58
PPG
1.65
10.5%
Win rate
50.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
15.2%
63.2%
Loss rate
34.8%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
13.2%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
38
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.76
Goals for per game
1.69
53.9%
Scoring rate
79.3%
48.7%
BTTS rate
56.3%
0.66
Goals for per game
1.72
50.0%
Scoring rate
76.1%
47.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
87
0.76
Goals Mean
1.69
0.86
Goals Std
1.48
53.9%
Scored 1+ rate
79.3%
17.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.5%
5.3%
Scored 3+ rate
26.4%
0.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
1.37
88.2%
Conceding rate
74.7%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.28
94.7%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
87
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.12
Conceded Std
1.12
56.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.1%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
46.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
46.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
87
0.83
Result entropy
0.91
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.99
16.99
Stability score
8.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
86
12
Lead Matches
27
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.2%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
0.88
35
Trailing Matches
24
14.3%
Non-loss rate
29.2%
5.7%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.99
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.56
49
Normal Rest History Matches
64
0.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
14
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
1
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.61
Portability PPG Range
1.25
66.24
Portability Score
53.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-247.0
PPG-1.00
GF-0.93
GA0.41
PPG2.50
PPG-1.07
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate25.4%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate26.1%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.93
Goals Std-0.62
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate8.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.52
Stability score8.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.52
Lead Points Retention-0.38
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score12.67
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.22
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.19
Current Team ELO-247.0
Current Opponent ELO247.0
Current ELO Difference-494.1
Expected score-0.61
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-11.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sheffield Wednesday

D
Sheffield Wednesday1–1Blackpool1 Nov · home
Pick: Sheffield Wednesday 38% · missed
D
Sheffield Wednesday1–1Cambridge United27 Oct · home
Pick: Cambridge United 39% · missed
L
Doncaster2–0Sheffield Wednesday24 Oct · away
Pick: Doncaster 47% · hit
L
Notts County2–0Sheffield Wednesday20 Oct · away
Pick: Notts County 53% · hit
W
Sheffield Wednesday5–0AFC Wimbledon17 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield Wednesday 45% · hit

Plymouth

W
Plymouth4–0Alvechurch7 Nov · home
Pick: Plymouth 56% · hit
D
Plymouth0–0Reading31 Oct · home
Pick: Plymouth 40% · missed
W
Cambridge United2–3Plymouth24 Oct · away
Pick: Cambridge United 53% · missed
L
Stevenage3–0Plymouth20 Oct · away
Pick: Stevenage 45% · hit
L
Plymouth0–2Huddersfield17 Oct · home
Pick: Plymouth 40% · missed

About this match

Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Hillsborough, Sheffield. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sheffield Wednesday win 40.6%, draw 26.1%, Plymouth win 33.3%. The pick is Sheffield Wednesday win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.