ScoreProb
1st League - FBiH Bosnia & Herzegovina FBiH - 13 2026

Sloboda Tuzla vs Igman Konjic

Sloboda Tuzla Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Igman Konjic Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sloboda Tuzla win
Sloboda Tuzla winPick
52.5%
Draw
23.2%
Igman Konjic win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Sloboda Tuzla history45 matches
Igman Konjic history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Sloboda Tuzla are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sloboda Tuzla are rated 25 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,475. On rating alone Sloboda Tuzla would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Sloboda Tuzla score more

    1.22 goals a game over 45 matches for Sloboda Tuzla, against 1.00 over 44 for Igman Konjic.

  • Sloboda Tuzla concede fewer

    Sloboda Tuzla concede 1.40 a game, Igman Konjic 1.57.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Sloboda Tuzla matches, against 55% for Igman Konjic. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sloboda Tuzla
Igman Konjic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.4
ELO
1475.4
45
ELO · Matches
44
1500.4
Current Team ELO
1475.4
1475.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.4
25.03
Current ELO Difference
-25.03
0.54
Expected score
0.46
45
History Matches
44
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.08
Overperformance
47.92
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
0.50
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
44
1.22
PPG
1.14
33.3%
Win rate
31.8%
22.2%
Draw rate
18.2%
44.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
23
1.59
PPG
1.09
45.5%
Win rate
30.4%
22.7%
Draw rate
17.4%
31.8%
Loss rate
52.2%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
22
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.00
71.1%
Scoring rate
68.2%
53.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.55
Goals for per game
0.96
77.3%
Scoring rate
60.9%
54.5%
BTTS rate
39.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
45
History Matches
44
1.22
Goals Mean
1.00
1.01
Goals Std
0.83
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.2%
37.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.5%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
2.3%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.57
77.8%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.70
77.3%
Conceding rate
73.9%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
45
History Matches
44
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.16
Conceded Std
1.37
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
17.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.7%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
44
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.70
3.44
Stability score
7.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
44
14
Lead Matches
15
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
53.3%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.62
18
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.19
1.08
Portability PPG Range
0.37
48.15
Portability Score
72.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO25.03
PPG0.09
GF0.22
GA-0.17
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate2.9%
Scored 2+ rate8.2%
Scored 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-3.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate18.1%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.71
Portability Score-24.83
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO25.03
Current Opponent ELO-25.03
Current ELO Difference50.07
Expected score0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sloboda Tuzla

W
Bratstvo Gračanica1–2Sloboda Tuzla31 Oct · away
Pick: Sloboda Tuzla 41% · hit
L
Sloboda Tuzla0–1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo27 Oct · home
Pick: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 47% · hit
W
Sloboda Tuzla1–0Stupčanica Olovo24 Oct · home
Pick: Stupčanica Olovo 44% · missed
D
Jedinstvo Bihać0–0Sloboda Tuzla17 Oct · away
Pick: Jedinstvo Bihać 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Igman Konjic

W
Igman Konjic1–0GOŠK Gabela31 Oct · home
Pick: GOŠK Gabela 48% · missed
L
Radnik Hadžići2–1Igman Konjic24 Oct · away
Pick: Radnik Hadžići 49% · hit
W
Igman Konjic1–0Zvijezda Gradačac17 Oct · home
Pick: Igman Konjic 53% · hit
D
Igman Konjic1–1Posušje29 Aug · home
Pick: Igman Konjic 38% · missed
L
Igman Konjic0–3Stupčanica Olovo26 Aug · home
Pick: Igman Konjic 38% · missed

About this match

Sloboda Tuzla and Igman Konjic meet in 1st League - FBiH on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sloboda Tuzla win 52.5%, draw 23.2%, Igman Konjic win 24.3%. The pick is Sloboda Tuzla win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.