ScoreProb
1st League - FBiH Bosnia & Herzegovina FBiH - 13 2026

Travnik vs Bratstvo Gračanica

Travnik Home · Elo 1,511
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bratstvo Gračanica Away · Elo 1,506
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Travnik win
Travnik winPick
47.1%
Draw
27.2%
Bratstvo Gračanica win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.2%
Under 2.556.8%

How much we know

Travnik history42 matches
Bratstvo Gračanica history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Travnik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,511 against 1,506. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Travnik score more

    1.38 goals a game over 42 matches for Travnik, against 1.14 over 43 for Bratstvo Gračanica.

  • Defences are close

    Travnik concede 1.05 a game, Bratstvo Gračanica 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Travnik matches, against 40% for Bratstvo Gračanica. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Travnik
Bratstvo Gračanica
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.2
ELO
1506.1
42
ELO · Matches
43
1511.2
Current Team ELO
1506.1
1506.1
Current Opponent ELO
1511.2
5.07
Current ELO Difference
-5.07
0.51
Expected score
0.49
42
History Matches
43
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.86
Overperformance
50.66
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
43
1.45
PPG
1.40
38.1%
Win rate
37.2%
31.0%
Draw rate
27.9%
31.0%
Loss rate
34.9%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
67.4%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.9%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
21
1.81
PPG
1.00
52.4%
Win rate
23.8%
23.8%
Draw rate
28.6%
23.8%
Loss rate
47.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.14
73.8%
Scoring rate
65.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
41.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.76
76.2%
Scoring rate
47.6%
52.4%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
42
History Matches
43
1.38
Goals Mean
1.14
1.33
Goals Std
1.02
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
65.1%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.0%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.14
71.4%
Conceding rate
67.4%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.24
76.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
42
History Matches
43
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.84
Conceded Std
1.07
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.9%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
52.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.9%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
52.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
43
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.52
0.45
Stability score
0.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
43
12
Lead Matches
14
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.86
11
Trailing Matches
12
36.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
15
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.52
87.92
Portability Score
65.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO5.07
PPG0.06
GF0.24
GA-0.09
PPG2.00
PPG0.81
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate8.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-0.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.99
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate4.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate11.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score22.22
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Current Team ELO5.07
Current Opponent ELO-5.07
Current ELO Difference10.13
Expected score0.01
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Travnik

L
Stupčanica Olovo5–2Travnik31 Oct · away
Pick: Stupčanica Olovo 53% · hit
W
Brotnjo1–2Travnik28 Oct · away
Pick: Brotnjo 34% · missed
W
Travnik4–0Jedinstvo Bihać24 Oct · home
Pick: Jedinstvo Bihać 38% · missed
W
Tomislav2–4Travnik29 Aug · away
Pick: Travnik 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bratstvo Gračanica

L
Bratstvo Gračanica1–2Sloboda Tuzla31 Oct · home
Pick: Sloboda Tuzla 41% · hit
L
GOŠK Gabela2–0Bratstvo Gračanica25 Oct · away
Pick: GOŠK Gabela 56% · hit
W
Bratstvo Gračanica2–1Radnik Hadžići17 Oct · home
Pick: Bratstvo Gračanica 37% · hit
L
Čapljina2–1Bratstvo Gračanica29 Aug · away
Pick: Čapljina 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Travnik and Bratstvo Gračanica meet in 1st League - FBiH on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Travnik win 47.1%, draw 27.2%, Bratstvo Gračanica win 25.6%. The pick is Travnik win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.2%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.