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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Sparta Nijkerk vs Excelsior '31

Sparta Nijkerk Home · Elo 1,492
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Excelsior '31 Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Excelsior '31 win
Sparta Nijkerk win
35.4%
Draw
23.5%
Excelsior '31 winPick
41.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.0%
No34.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.4%
Under 2.529.6%

How much we know

Sparta Nijkerk history55 matches
Excelsior '31 history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Excelsior '31 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,492 against 1,473. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sparta Nijkerk score more

    2.11 goals a game over 55 matches for Sparta Nijkerk, against 1.54 over 52 for Excelsior '31.

  • Sparta Nijkerk concede fewer

    Sparta Nijkerk concede 1.62 a game, Excelsior '31 1.83.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Sparta Nijkerk matches, against 69% for Excelsior '31. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sparta Nijkerk
Excelsior '31@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.1
ELO
1473.1
55
ELO · Matches
52
1492.1
Current Team ELO
1473.1
1473.1
Current Opponent ELO
1492.1
18.95
Current ELO Difference
-18.95
0.53
Expected score
0.47
55
History Matches
52
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.07
Overperformance
48.24
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
2.10
Goals for per game
2.00
1.70
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
52
1.44
PPG
1.17
41.8%
Win rate
32.7%
18.2%
Draw rate
19.2%
40.0%
Loss rate
48.1%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
67.3%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
52.7%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.50
PPG
1.15
43.3%
Win rate
30.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
36.7%
Loss rate
46.2%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.3%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.11
Goals for per game
1.54
87.3%
Scoring rate
76.9%
63.6%
BTTS rate
61.5%
2.27
Goals for per game
1.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.8%
53.3%
BTTS rate
69.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
52
2.11
Goals Mean
1.54
1.66
Goals Std
1.20
87.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
54.5%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
32.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.2%
2.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.83
76.4%
Conceding rate
82.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.96
73.3%
Conceding rate
84.6%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
52
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.83
1.24
Conceded Std
1.31
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.7%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.9%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
52
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
2.28
Goal Difference Std
1.88
5.24
Stability score
5.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
41
12
Lead Matches
13
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
46.2%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.59
10
Trailing Matches
11
20.0%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.21
61.93
Portability Score
82.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO18.95
PPG0.26
GF0.57
GA-0.21
PPG-2.50
PPG0.35
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate10.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.5%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate37.2%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate10.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-20.57
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO18.95
Current Opponent ELO-18.95
Current ELO Difference37.91
Expected score0.05
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sparta Nijkerk

D
Dovo2–2Sparta Nijkerk7 Nov · away
Pick: Dovo 50% · missed
L
Hoek4–2Sparta Nijkerk29 Oct · away
Pick: Hoek 57% · hit
W
Sparta Nijkerk2–0Hoogeveen24 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Nijkerk 49% · hit
L
Purmersteijn3–0Sparta Nijkerk17 Oct · away
Pick: Purmersteijn 45% · hit
D
Sparta Nijkerk5–5Hollandia29 Aug · home
Pick: Sparta Nijkerk 64% · missed

Excelsior '31

L
Excelsior '310–3ACV7 Nov · home
Pick: Excelsior '31 49% · missed
L
Harkemase Boys4–0Excelsior '3124 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior '31 42% · missed
W
Excelsior '315–0SC Genemuiden17 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior '31 43% · hit
W
Harkemase Boys0–1Excelsior '311 Sep · away
Pick: Harkemase Boys 41% · missed
W
Excelsior '314–0SVZW29 Aug · home
Pick: Excelsior '31 72% · hit

About this match

Sparta Nijkerk and Excelsior '31 meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sparta Nijkerk win 35.4%, draw 23.5%, Excelsior '31 win 41.1%. The pick is Excelsior '31 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.4%. Both teams to score: 66.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.