ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

Stanway Rovers vs Whitehawk

Stanway Rovers Home · Elo 1,553
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Whitehawk Away · Elo 1,419
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stanway Rovers win
Stanway Rovers winPick
45.5%
Draw
26.6%
Whitehawk win
27.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Stanway Rovers history49 matches
Whitehawk history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stanway Rovers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stanway Rovers are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,419. On rating alone Stanway Rovers would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Stanway Rovers score more

    1.61 goals a game over 49 matches for Stanway Rovers, against 1.28 over 65 for Whitehawk.

  • Stanway Rovers concede fewer

    Stanway Rovers concede 1.14 a game, Whitehawk 1.65.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Stanway Rovers matches, against 58% for Whitehawk. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stanway Rovers
Whitehawk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.5
ELO
1419.4
49
ELO · Matches
65
1553.5
Current Team ELO
1419.4
1419.4
Current Opponent ELO
1553.5
134.1
Current ELO Difference
-134.1
0.68
Expected score
0.32
49
History Matches
65
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.06
54.20
Overperformance
45.64
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.50
1.50
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
65
1.76
PPG
1.08
51.0%
Win rate
27.7%
22.4%
Draw rate
24.6%
26.5%
Loss rate
47.7%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
31
1.85
PPG
0.84
53.8%
Win rate
22.6%
23.1%
Draw rate
16.1%
23.1%
Loss rate
61.3%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
67.7%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
26
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.28
77.6%
Scoring rate
69.2%
42.9%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.29
88.5%
Scoring rate
74.2%
46.2%
BTTS rate
61.3%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
49
History Matches
65
1.61
Goals Mean
1.28
1.38
Goals Std
1.16
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
44.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.65
59.2%
Conceding rate
78.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.06
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.9%
2.25
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
65
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.25
Conceded Std
1.17
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.9%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.5%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.5%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
40.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
65
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.62
6.18
Stability score
4.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
65
20
Lead Matches
20
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.68
10
Trailing Matches
29
30.0%
Non-loss rate
20.7%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
39
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
7
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
0.25
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
0.25
-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.42
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.08
36.56
Portability Score
54.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO134.1
PPG0.68
GF0.34
GA-0.50
PPG0.00
PPG1.01
PPG0.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate33.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate8.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-1.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.68
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score2.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.54
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-19
Non-loss rate9.3%
Trailing Win Rate13.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range0.92
Portability Score-17.93
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO134.1
Current Opponent ELO-134.1
Current ELO Difference268.2
Expected score0.37
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stanway Rovers

L
Eastbourne Borough1–0Stanway Rovers3 Nov · away
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 65% · hit
L
Leatherhead7–2Stanway Rovers31 Oct · away
Pick: Leatherhead 64% · hit
W
Stanway Rovers3–0Cheshunt24 Oct · home
Pick: Cheshunt 42% · missed
L
Ramsgate2–0Stanway Rovers20 Oct · away
Pick: Ramsgate 59% · hit
L
Wingate & Finchley4–1Stanway Rovers17 Oct · away
Pick: Wingate & Finchley 57% · hit

Whitehawk

L
Whitehawk1–3St Albans City31 Oct · home
Pick: St Albans City 45% · hit
L
Whitehawk1–2Dulwich Hamlet27 Oct · home
Pick: Dulwich Hamlet 53% · hit
W
Whitehawk1–0St Albans City24 Oct · home
Pick: St Albans City 47% · missed
D
Cheshunt1–1Whitehawk17 Oct · away
Pick: Cheshunt 53% · missed
L
Whyteleafe5–0Whitehawk14 Oct · away
Pick: Whitehawk 41% · missed

About this match

Stanway Rovers and Whitehawk meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Stanway Rovers win 45.5%, draw 26.6%, Whitehawk win 27.9%. The pick is Stanway Rovers win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.