ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 16 2026

Strumska Slava vs Slivnishki geroy

Strumska Slava Home · Elo 1,548
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Slivnishki geroy Away · Elo 1,479
Hristo Radovanov Stadium, Radomir Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Strumska Slava win
Strumska Slava winPick
60.6%
Draw
21.1%
Slivnishki geroy win
18.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Strumska Slava history52 matches
Slivnishki geroy history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Strumska Slava are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Strumska Slava are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,479. On rating alone Strumska Slava would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Strumska Slava score more

    1.42 goals a game over 52 matches for Strumska Slava, against 1.25 over 52 for Slivnishki geroy.

  • Strumska Slava concede fewer

    Strumska Slava concede 1.08 a game, Slivnishki geroy 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Strumska Slava matches, against 60% for Slivnishki geroy. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Strumska Slava
Slivnishki geroy
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1548.4
ELO
1479.2
52
ELO · Matches
52
1548.4
Current Team ELO
1479.2
1479.2
Current Opponent ELO
1548.4
69.19
Current ELO Difference
-69.19
0.60
Expected score
0.40
52
History Matches
52
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.06
Overperformance
48.64
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
52
1.54
PPG
1.25
40.4%
Win rate
34.6%
32.7%
Draw rate
21.2%
26.9%
Loss rate
44.2%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.6%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.8%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
2.00
PPG
0.88
60.0%
Win rate
23.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
19.2%
20.0%
Loss rate
57.7%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.25
71.2%
Scoring rate
65.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.2%
1.88
Goals for per game
0.88
76.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
44.0%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
52
History Matches
52
1.42
Goals Mean
1.25
1.28
Goals Std
1.19
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.4%
44.2%
Scored 2+ rate
36.5%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.42
63.5%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.69
56.0%
Conceding rate
88.5%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.50
25.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
52
History Matches
52
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.07
Conceded Std
1.20
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.83
1.24
Stability score
3.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
30
Eligible Matches
16
8
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
6
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
30
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.60
36
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
13
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
1.50
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.13
1.56
Portability PPG Range
0.30
43.93
Portability Score
79.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO69.19
PPG0.29
GF0.17
GA-0.35
PPG1.00
PPG1.12
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate32.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-2.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.51
Portability PPG Range1.26
Portability Score-35.11
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.62
Current Team ELO69.19
Current Opponent ELO-69.19
Current ELO Difference138.4
Expected score0.20
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Strumska Slava

D
Slavia Sofia II1–1Strumska Slava24 Oct · away
Pick: Strumska Slava 50% · missed
W
Strumska Slava3–0Pirin Razlog29 Aug · home
Pick: Strumska Slava 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Slivnishki geroy

D
Slivnishki geroy0–0Oborishte31 Oct · home
Pick: Oborishte 40% · missed
D
Slivnishki geroy0–0FK Minyor Pernik24 Oct · home
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 41% · missed
W
Pirin Razlog1–2Slivnishki geroy17 Oct · away
Pick: Slivnishki geroy 41% · hit
W
Septemvri Sofia II1–2Slivnishki geroy29 Aug · away
Pick: Septemvri Sofia II 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Strumska Slava and Slivnishki geroy meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Hristo Radovanov Stadium, Radomir. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Strumska Slava win 60.6%, draw 21.1%, Slivnishki geroy win 18.3%. The pick is Strumska Slava win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.