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National League England Round 17 2026

Sutton Utd vs Solihull Moors

Sutton Utd Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Solihull Moors Away · Elo 1,454
VBS Community Stadium, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sutton Utd win
Sutton Utd winPick
58.0%
Draw
20.2%
Solihull Moors win
21.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

Sutton Utd history96 matches
Solihull Moors history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Sutton Utd are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sutton Utd are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,454. On rating alone Sutton Utd would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.45 goals a game over 96 matches for Sutton Utd, against 1.36 over 85 for Solihull Moors.

  • Defences are close

    Sutton Utd concede 1.61 a game, Solihull Moors 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Sutton Utd matches, against 53% for Solihull Moors. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sutton Utd
Solihull Moors@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.4
ELO
1453.9
96
ELO · Matches
85
1530.4
Current Team ELO
1453.9
1453.9
Current Opponent ELO
1530.4
76.53
Current ELO Difference
-76.53
0.61
Expected score
0.39
96
History Matches
85
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.33
Overperformance
48.02
0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
3.40
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
0.80
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
2.30
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
96
Matches
85
1.30
PPG
1.12
33.3%
Win rate
28.2%
30.2%
Draw rate
27.1%
36.5%
Loss rate
44.7%
82.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
54
Matches
42
1.35
PPG
1.19
35.2%
Win rate
28.6%
29.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
35.2%
Loss rate
38.1%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
54
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.36
80.2%
Scoring rate
70.6%
63.5%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.21
83.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
68.5%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
96
History Matches
85
1.45
Goals Mean
1.36
1.09
Goals Std
1.40
80.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
32.9%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.61
77.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.43
79.6%
Conceding rate
76.2%
0.33
Goals against per game
3.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
96
History Matches
85
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.42
Conceded Std
1.32
45.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.9%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
19.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
19.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
96
History Matches
85
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.98
0.27
Stability score
2.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
96
Eligible Matches
85
25
Lead Matches
20
72.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.73
28
Trailing Matches
34
42.9%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
96
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
79
Normal Rest History Matches
62
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
9
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.33
11
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.54
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.75
41.98
Portability Score
48.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
96
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO76.53
PPG0.18
GF0.08
GA0.00
PPG3.00
PPG0.16
PPG2.60
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate9.6%
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.71
History Matches11
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-2.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate7.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate25.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-6.23
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.05
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO76.53
Current Opponent ELO-76.53
Current ELO Difference153.1
Expected score0.22
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.53

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sutton Utd

L
Guiseley AFC1–0Sutton Utd7 Nov · away
Pick: Sutton Utd 46% · missed
W
Worthing0–3Sutton Utd31 Oct · away
Pick: Sutton Utd 41% · hit
W
Sutton Utd2–0Aldershot Town28 Oct · home
Pick: Sutton Utd 51% · hit
L
Harrogate Town3–1Sutton Utd24 Oct · away
Pick: Sutton Utd 39% · missed
W
Sutton Utd1–0Truro City17 Oct · home
Pick: Sutton Utd 52% · hit

Solihull Moors

W
Solihull Moors2–1Kidderminster Harriers31 Oct · home
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 61% · missed
W
Wealdstone2–3Solihull Moors27 Oct · away
Pick: Wealdstone 51% · missed
L
Solihull Moors1–2Carlisle24 Oct · home
Pick: Carlisle 50% · hit
L
Kidderminster Harriers2–1Solihull Moors17 Oct · away
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 43% · hit
W
Solihull Moors1–0Everton U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Solihull Moors 59% · hit

About this match

Sutton Utd and Solihull Moors meet in National League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at VBS Community Stadium, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sutton Utd win 58.0%, draw 20.2%, Solihull Moors win 21.8%. The pick is Sutton Utd win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.