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UEFA Nations League World League B - 5 2026

Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Sweden Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bosnia & Herzegovina Away · Elo 1,527
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bosnia & Herzegovina win
Sweden win
35.1%
Draw
22.0%
Bosnia & Herzegovina winPick
42.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.0%
No37.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.0%
Under 2.534.0%

How much we know

Sweden history18 matches
Bosnia & Herzegovina history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Bosnia & Herzegovina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,527 against 1,499. On rating alone Bosnia & Herzegovina would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 18 matches for Sweden, against 1.67 over 18 for Bosnia & Herzegovina.

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina concede fewer

    Sweden concede 1.94 a game, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.17.

  • Sweden games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Sweden matches, against 50% for Bosnia & Herzegovina. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sweden
Bosnia & Herzegovina@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.5
ELO
1527.2
18
ELO · Matches
18
1499.5
Current Team ELO
1527.2
1527.2
Current Opponent ELO
1499.5
-27.79
Current ELO Difference
27.79
0.46
Expected score
0.54
18
History Matches
18
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.55
Overperformance
52.56
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.30
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
18
Matches
18
1.22
PPG
1.56
33.3%
Win rate
38.9%
22.2%
Draw rate
38.9%
44.4%
Loss rate
22.2%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
11
1.75
PPG
1.27
50.0%
Win rate
27.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
45.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
27.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
8
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.72
Goals for per game
1.67
72.2%
Scoring rate
88.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
72.2%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.73
75.0%
Scoring rate
90.9%
75.0%
BTTS rate
72.7%
18
History Matches
18
1.72
Goals Mean
1.67
1.63
Goals Std
1.45
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.94
Goals against per game
1.17
94.4%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.36
100.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
18
History Matches
18
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.22
Conceded Std
0.96
55.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
18
History Matches
18
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.92
3.44
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
18
6
Lead Matches
7
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.71
7
Trailing Matches
3
14.3%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
136.9
Rest days
135.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
6
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
7
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.90
45.90
Portability Score
52.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
18
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-27.79
PPG-0.33
GF0.06
GA0.78
PPG0.48
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate15.9%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.42
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.78
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate22.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score0.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.93
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate26.2%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.52
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-6.73
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.67
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO-27.79
Current Opponent ELO27.79
Current ELO Difference-55.59
Expected score-0.08
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sweden

W
Romania0–1Sweden5 Oct · away
Pick: Romania 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bosnia & Herzegovina

W
Bosnia & Herzegovina1–0Poland5 Oct · home
Pick: Bosnia & Herzegovina 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina meet in UEFA Nations League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sweden win 35.1%, draw 22.0%, Bosnia & Herzegovina win 42.9%. The pick is Bosnia & Herzegovina win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.0%. Both teams to score: 63.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.