ScoreProb
League Two China Relegation Group - 30 2026

Tai'an Tiankuang vs Xiamen Feilu

Tai'an Tiankuang Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Xiamen Feilu Away · Elo 1,484
Taishan, Tchaj-an Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tai'an Tiankuang win
Tai'an Tiankuang winPick
46.5%
Draw
27.7%
Xiamen Feilu win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%

How much we know

Tai'an Tiankuang history55 matches
Xiamen Feilu history23 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tai'an Tiankuang are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,495 against 1,484. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Xiamen Feilu score more

    1.13 goals a game over 55 matches for Tai'an Tiankuang, against 1.26 over 23 for Xiamen Feilu.

  • Tai'an Tiankuang concede fewer

    Tai'an Tiankuang concede 1.05 a game, Xiamen Feilu 1.26.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Tai'an Tiankuang matches, against 48% for Xiamen Feilu. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tai'an Tiankuang
Xiamen Feilu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.5
ELO
1483.6
55
ELO · Matches
23
1494.5
Current Team ELO
1483.6
1483.6
Current Opponent ELO
1494.5
10.92
Current ELO Difference
-10.92
0.52
Expected score
0.48
55
History Matches
23
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.50
Overperformance
47.88
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
23
1.36
PPG
1.26
36.4%
Win rate
30.4%
27.3%
Draw rate
34.8%
36.4%
Loss rate
34.8%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
16.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
12
1.48
PPG
1.00
40.7%
Win rate
25.0%
25.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
3.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
27
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.26
65.5%
Scoring rate
65.2%
50.9%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.42
63.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
44.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.32
63.6%
Scoring rate
68.2%
54.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
23
1.13
Goals Mean
1.26
1.08
Goals Std
1.07
65.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.2%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
47.8%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.26
74.5%
Conceding rate
65.2%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.75
70.4%
Conceding rate
91.7%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.27
77.3%
Conceding rate
63.6%
55
History Matches
23
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.26
0.84
Conceded Std
1.26
25.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.1%
3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
23
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.29
Goal Difference Std
1.44
0.78
Stability score
0.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
23
11
Lead Matches
5
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.60
15
Trailing Matches
3
26.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
15
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.41
PPG
1.32
36.4%
Win rate
31.8%
31.8%
Draw rate
36.4%
31.8%
Loss rate
31.8%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
0.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.41
Current Competition PPG
1.32
0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.02
Portability PPG Std
—
0.04
Portability PPG Range
—
95.93
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
23
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO10.92
PPG0.10
GF-0.13
GA-0.21
PPG0.09
PPG0.48
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches32
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate0.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.42
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches32
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score0.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate30.9%
Lead Points Retention0.34
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate26.7%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.05
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO10.92
Current Opponent ELO-10.92
Current ELO Difference21.83
Expected score0.03
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tai'an Tiankuang

W
Tai'an Tiankuang3–1Chengdu Rongcheng II24 Oct · home
Pick: Tai'an Tiankuang 46% · hit
L
Wuhan Three Towns II2–0Tai'an Tiankuang17 Oct · away
Pick: Tai'an Tiankuang 35% · missed
D
Xiamen Feilu0–0Tai'an Tiankuang12 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
W
Tai'an Tiankuang3–0Shangyu Pterosaur7 Oct · home
Pick: Tai'an Tiankuang 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Xiamen Feilu

L
Xiamen Feilu0–1Nantong Haimen Codion31 Oct · home
Pick: Xiamen Feilu 36% · missed
D
BIT2–2Xiamen Feilu24 Oct · away
Pick: BIT 39% · missed
W
Xiamen Feilu3–0Qingdao Red Lions18 Oct · home
Pick: Xiamen Feilu 39% · hit
D
Xiamen Feilu0–0Tai'an Tiankuang12 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
L
Nantong Haimen Codion2–0Xiamen Feilu7 Oct · away
Pick: Nantong Haimen Codion 50% · hit

About this match

Tai'an Tiankuang and Xiamen Feilu meet in League Two on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Taishan, Tchaj-an. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tai'an Tiankuang win 46.5%, draw 27.7%, Xiamen Feilu win 25.8%. The pick is Tai'an Tiankuang win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.2%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.