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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

TEC vs Dovo

TEC Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dovo Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: TEC win
TEC winPick
45.5%
Draw
26.3%
Dovo win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%

How much we know

TEC history55 matches
Dovo history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why TEC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dovo are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,482. On rating alone Dovo would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • TEC score more

    1.55 goals a game over 55 matches for TEC, against 1.29 over 52 for Dovo.

  • Defences are close

    TEC concede 1.60 a game, Dovo 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of TEC matches, against 52% for Dovo. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TEC
Dovo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.9
ELO
1510.3
55
ELO · Matches
52
1481.9
Current Team ELO
1510.3
1510.3
Current Opponent ELO
1481.9
-28.33
Current ELO Difference
28.33
0.46
Expected score
0.54
55
History Matches
52
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.23
Overperformance
50.55
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
0.70
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
52
1.35
PPG
1.31
40.0%
Win rate
36.5%
14.5%
Draw rate
21.2%
45.5%
Loss rate
42.3%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.36
PPG
1.11
40.0%
Win rate
29.6%
16.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
44.0%
Loss rate
48.1%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.55
Goals for per game
1.29
70.9%
Scoring rate
73.1%
56.4%
BTTS rate
59.6%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.26
68.0%
Scoring rate
70.4%
52.0%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
52
1.55
Goals Mean
1.29
1.47
Goals Std
1.20
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.1%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
34.6%
25.5%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.59
76.0%
Conceding rate
85.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
52
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.26
Conceded Std
1.23
45.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
23.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
52
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.67
8.49
Stability score
3.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
42
15
Lead Matches
11
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.76
10
Trailing Matches
15
10.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
84.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.54
Portability PPG Range
0.52
67.06
Portability Score
65.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-28.33
PPG0.04
GF0.26
GA0.10
PPG0.50
PPG0.25
PPG-0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate1.2%
Conceded 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score5.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate7.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score1.20
Rest days-0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO-28.33
Current Opponent ELO28.33
Current ELO Difference-56.67
Expected score-0.08
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TEC

W
TEC5–2Purmersteijn25 Oct · home
Pick: TEC 60% · hit
D
VV Scherpenzeel1–1TEC17 Oct · away
Pick: TEC 48% · missed
W
TEC4–2Almkerk1 Sep · home
Pick: TEC 71% · hit
L
TEC1–2Sportlust '4629 Aug · home
Pick: TEC 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dovo

D
Dovo2–2Sparta Nijkerk7 Nov · home
Pick: Dovo 50% · missed
D
ACV1–1Dovo24 Oct · away
Pick: ACV 50% · missed
L
Dovo2–3Harkemase Boys17 Oct · home
Pick: Dovo 38% · missed
L
Dovo2–3VV Scherpenzeel29 Aug · home
Pick: Dovo 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

TEC and Dovo meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: TEC win 45.5%, draw 26.3%, Dovo win 28.2%. The pick is TEC win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.8%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.