ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Isthmian England Round 17 2026

Three Bridges vs Brentwood Town

Three Bridges Home · Elo 1,569
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brentwood Town Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brentwood Town win
Three Bridges win
36.0%
Draw
21.8%
Brentwood Town winPick
42.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.3%
No36.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.6%
Under 2.528.4%

How much we know

Three Bridges history58 matches
Brentwood Town history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Brentwood Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,569 against 1,548. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Three Bridges score more

    2.36 goals a game over 58 matches for Three Bridges, against 1.97 over 62 for Brentwood Town.

  • Defences are close

    Three Bridges concede 1.50 a game, Brentwood Town 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Three Bridges matches, against 68% for Brentwood Town. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Three Bridges
Brentwood Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1569.1
ELO
1547.7
58
ELO · Matches
62
1569.1
Current Team ELO
1547.7
1547.7
Current Opponent ELO
1569.1
21.42
Current ELO Difference
-21.42
0.53
Expected score
0.47
58
History Matches
62
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.45
Overperformance
52.92
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
3.20
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.10
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.48
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
62
1.84
PPG
1.82
56.9%
Win rate
56.5%
13.8%
Draw rate
12.9%
29.3%
Loss rate
30.6%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
69.0%
Over 2.5 rate
67.7%
56.9%
Over 3.5 rate
48.4%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
30
2.07
PPG
1.57
63.3%
Win rate
50.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
6.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
43.3%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
76.7%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
30
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.36
Goals for per game
1.97
84.5%
Scoring rate
80.6%
56.9%
BTTS rate
59.7%
2.87
Goals for per game
1.97
90.0%
Scoring rate
76.7%
63.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
62
2.36
Goals Mean
1.97
1.78
Goals Std
1.43
84.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
63.8%
Scored 2+ rate
64.5%
37.9%
Scored 3+ rate
30.6%
2.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
72.4%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.77
73.3%
Conceding rate
90.0%
3.50
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
58
History Matches
62
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.39
Conceded Std
1.27
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.5%
20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.0%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
62
0.87
Result entropy
0.86
2.55
Goal Difference Std
2.01
13.18
Stability score
13.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
60
21
Lead Matches
14
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.86
12
Trailing Matches
20
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
9
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
0.75
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.96
Portability PPG Std
0.66
2.24
Portability PPG Range
1.63
34.31
Portability Score
43.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.42
PPG0.02
GF0.39
GA0.00
PPG-0.75
PPG0.50
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate7.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.54
Stability score-0.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.62
Portability Score-8.96
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.79
Current Team ELO21.42
Current Opponent ELO-21.42
Current ELO Difference42.83
Expected score0.06
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Three Bridges

L
Maldon & Tiptree3–1Three Bridges31 Oct · away
Pick: Maldon & Tiptree 54% · hit
L
Dartford3–2Three Bridges24 Oct · away
Pick: Dartford 63% · hit
L
Three Bridges0–2Eastbourne Borough20 Oct · home
Pick: Eastbourne Borough 47% · hit
D
Three Bridges3–3Enfield Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Enfield Town 59% · missed
L
Three Bridges1–2Lewes13 Oct · home
Pick: Lewes 44% · hit

Brentwood Town

L
Brentwood Town1–2Leatherhead3 Nov · home
Pick: Leatherhead 42% · hit
L
Brentwood Town1–4Cray Wanderers31 Oct · home
Pick: Cray Wanderers 43% · hit
W
Brentwood Town4–2Cheshunt27 Oct · home
Pick: Brentwood Town 42% · hit
W
Brentwood Town3–0Dartford20 Oct · home
Pick: Dartford 43% · missed
L
Eastleigh3–2Brentwood Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Eastleigh 55% · hit

About this match

Three Bridges and Brentwood Town meet in Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Three Bridges win 36.0%, draw 21.8%, Brentwood Town win 42.2%. The pick is Brentwood Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.6%. Both teams to score: 63.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.