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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

TOGB vs EVV

TOGB Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
EVV Away · Elo 1,469
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: TOGB win
TOGB winPick
65.3%
Draw
15.0%
EVV win
19.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.0%
Under 2.526.0%

How much we know

TOGB history50 matches
EVV history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.3%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why TOGB are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • TOGB are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,469. On rating alone TOGB would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • EVV score more

    1.76 goals a game over 50 matches for TOGB, against 2.00 over 8 for EVV.

  • TOGB concede fewer

    TOGB concede 1.90 a game, EVV 2.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    74% of TOGB matches, against 75% for EVV. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TOGB
EVV@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.1
ELO
1469.0
50
ELO · Matches
8
1500.1
Current Team ELO
1469.0
1469.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.1
31.14
Current ELO Difference
-31.14
0.54
Expected score
0.46
50
History Matches
8
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.20
50.06
Overperformance
44.36
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
3.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
8
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
1.70
Goals against per game
2.88
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.88
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.95
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.71
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
8
1.34
PPG
1.00
38.0%
Win rate
25.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
42.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
82.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
74.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
4
1.44
PPG
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
24.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
76.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
56.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.74
25
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.76
Goals for per game
2.00
86.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
72.0%
BTTS rate
87.5%
2.20
Goals for per game
2.50
92.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
8
1.76
Goals Mean
2.00
1.26
Goals Std
1.00
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
52.0%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
2.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.90
Goals against per game
2.88
84.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.80
Goals against per game
3.50
88.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
8
1.90
Conceded Mean
2.88
1.45
Conceded Std
2.89
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.5%
36.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
3.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
8
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.71
4.07
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
7
15
Lead Matches
2
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
5
7.1%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.86
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
1.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.29
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.31
Portability PPG Std
—
0.63
Portability PPG Range
—
61.54
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.14
PPG0.34
GF-0.24
GA-0.98
PPG0.50
PPG-0.06
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches42
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches42
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches42
Conceded Mean-0.98
Conceded Std-1.45
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.55
History Matches42
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.85
Stability score-1.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.24
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches26
Long Rest Points Per Match0.91
Current Team ELO31.14
Current Opponent ELO-31.14
Current ELO Difference62.29
Expected score0.09
History Matches42
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance5.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TOGB

L
Zwaluwen1–0TOGB7 Nov · away
Pick: Zwaluwen 41% · hit
W
TOGB3–1Blauw Geel24 Oct · home
Pick: TOGB 41% · hit
D
TOGB3–3Vvsb17 Oct · home
Pick: Vvsb 41% · missed
L
UDI '192–1TOGB30 Aug · away
Pick: UDI '19 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

EVV

L
Vvsb4–0EVV28 Oct · away
Pick: Vvsb 74% · hit
L
Excelsior Maassluis1–0EVV24 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 78% · hit
D
EVV3–3Roosendaal18 Oct · home
Pick: Roosendaal 54% · missed
L
UNA4–1EVV30 Aug · away
Pick: UNA 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

TOGB and EVV meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: TOGB win 65.3%, draw 15.0%, EVV win 19.7%. The pick is TOGB win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.0%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.