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4. liga - Divizie F Czechia Group F - 1 2026

Valašské Meziříčí vs Nový Jičín

Valašské Meziříčí Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nový Jičín Away · Elo 1,479
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Valašské Meziříčí win
Valašské Meziříčí winPick
42.0%
Draw
19.1%
Nový Jičín win
38.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.4%
No38.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Valašské Meziříčí history56 matches
Nový Jičín history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Valašské Meziříčí are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,461 against 1,479. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Valašské Meziříčí score more

    1.82 goals a game over 56 matches for Valašské Meziříčí, against 1.24 over 50 for Nový Jičín.

  • Nový Jičín concede fewer

    Valašské Meziříčí concede 2.20 a game, Nový Jičín 1.48.

  • Valašské Meziříčí games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Valašské Meziříčí matches, against 48% for Nový Jičín. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Valašské Meziříčí
Nový Jičín@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.9
ELO
1478.5
56
ELO · Matches
50
1460.9
Current Team ELO
1478.5
1478.5
Current Opponent ELO
1460.9
-17.57
Current ELO Difference
17.57
0.47
Expected score
0.53
56
History Matches
50
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.03
47.21
Overperformance
47.91
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
3.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
2.90
Goals against per game
2.10
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.34
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
50
1.23
PPG
1.24
33.9%
Win rate
30.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
34.0%
44.6%
Loss rate
36.0%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
73.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.52
PPG
1.26
44.4%
Win rate
33.3%
18.5%
Draw rate
25.9%
37.0%
Loss rate
40.7%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.24
83.9%
Scoring rate
68.0%
73.2%
BTTS rate
54.0%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.22
88.9%
Scoring rate
63.0%
77.8%
BTTS rate
48.1%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
56
History Matches
50
1.82
Goals Mean
1.24
1.34
Goals Std
1.05
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
32.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.20
Goals against per game
1.48
89.3%
Conceding rate
74.0%
1.78
Goals against per game
1.52
88.9%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
56
History Matches
50
2.20
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.94
Conceded Std
1.49
51.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
32.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
50
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
2.64
Goal Difference Std
1.64
3.80
Stability score
0.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
49
17
Lead Matches
15
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.82
20
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.96
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.20
Rest days
83.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.05
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.12
50.27
Portability Score
90.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-17.57
PPG-0.01
GF0.58
GA0.72
PPG-1.00
PPG0.26
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate15.9%
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate22.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.72
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std1.00
Stability score3.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.44
Portability PPG Range1.05
Portability Score-40.66
Rest days0.26
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-17.57
Current Opponent ELO17.57
Current ELO Difference-35.14
Expected score-0.05
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Valašské Meziříčí

L
Pustá Polom3–2Valašské Meziříčí7 Nov · away
Pick: Pustá Polom 53% · hit
D
Valašské Meziříčí2–2Bílovec31 Oct · home
Pick: Valašské Meziříčí 46% · missed
W
Břidličná0–1Valašské Meziříčí24 Oct · away
Pick: Valašské Meziříčí 48% · hit
W
Valašské Meziříčí2–1Bospor Bohumín17 Oct · home
Pick: Bospor Bohumín 64% · missed
D
Valašské Meziříčí2–2Jiskra Rýmařov29 Aug · home
Pick: Jiskra Rýmařov 43% · missed

Nový Jičín

L
Nový Jičín0–1Frydek-Mistek B7 Nov · home
Pick: Nový Jičín 70% · missed
D
Jiskra Rýmařov2–2Nový Jičín31 Oct · away
Pick: Jiskra Rýmařov 50% · missed
L
Nový Jičín0–1Vratimov24 Oct · home
Pick: Vratimov 52% · hit
D
Šumperk0–0Nový Jičín18 Oct · away
Pick: Šumperk 38% · missed
W
Zabreh0–1Nový Jičín30 Aug · away
Pick: Zabreh 51% · missed

About this match

Valašské Meziříčí and Nový Jičín meet in 4. liga - Divizie F on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Valašské Meziříčí win 42.0%, draw 19.1%, Nový Jičín win 38.9%. The pick is Valašské Meziříčí win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 61.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.