Vietnam U23 vs Qatar U23
Match result probability Model pick: Vietnam U23 win
Vietnam U23 winPick
48.8%
Draw
28.0%
Qatar U23 win
23.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes41.1%
No58.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.5%
Under 2.558.5%
How much we know
Vietnam U23 history16 matches
Qatar U23 history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Vietnam U23
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Vietnam U23 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Vietnam U23 are rated 46 Elo points higher
Elo 1,546 against 1,500. On rating alone Vietnam U23 would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Qatar U23 score more
1.38 goals a game over 16 matches for Vietnam U23, against 1.71 over 14 for Qatar U23.
-
Vietnam U23 concede fewer
Vietnam U23 concede 0.81 a game, Qatar U23 0.93.
-
Vietnam U23 games more often go over 2.5 goals
44% of Vietnam U23 matches, against 29% for Qatar U23. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Qatar U23@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1546.2
ELO
1500.2
16
ELO · Matches
14
1546.2
Current Team ELO
1500.2
1500.2
Current Opponent ELO
1546.2
46.03
Current ELO Difference
-46.03
0.57
Expected score
0.43
16
History Matches
14
0.17
Residual Mean
-0.01
57.34
Overperformance
49.47
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
0.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
16
Matches
14
2.06
PPG
1.36
62.5%
Win rate
35.7%
18.8%
Draw rate
28.6%
18.8%
Loss rate
35.7%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.65
Venue performance10 signals 100
10
Matches
8
2.10
PPG
1.13
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
37.5%
10.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
12.5%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
10
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.71
81.3%
Scoring rate
57.1%
37.5%
BTTS rate
35.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.63
90.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
0.33
Goals for per game
0.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
0.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
16
History Matches
14
1.38
Goals Mean
1.71
0.86
Goals Std
3.26
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.63
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.81
Goals against per game
0.93
56.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
16
History Matches
14
0.81
Conceded Mean
0.93
0.88
Conceded Std
0.70
18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
16
History Matches
14
0.84
Result entropy
1.00
1.37
Goal Difference Std
3.65
16.12
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
16
Eligible Matches
14
7
Lead Matches
4
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.83
2
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
228.0
Rest days
80.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
7
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
3
Long Rest History Matches
5
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
2
0.33
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.10
Portability PPG Std
1.25
2.67
Portability PPG Range
3.00
31.34
Portability Score
28.62
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
16
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO46.03
PPG0.71
GF-0.34
GA-0.12
PPG-0.17
PPG0.98
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate15.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-2.40
Scored 1+ rate24.1%
Scored 2+ rate21.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std-2.28
Stability score15.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score2.73
Rest days147.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.53
Current Team ELO46.03
Current Opponent ELO-46.03
Current ELO Difference92.06
Expected score0.13
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance7.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Vietnam U23
No earlier results with our pick yet
Qatar U23
L
Qatar U230–3Al-Khor5 Nov · home
Pick: Qatar U23 60% · missed D
Qatar U232–2Al-Markhiya28 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Markhiya 45% · missed W
Muaither SC1–2Qatar U2315 Oct · away
Pick: Muaither SC 44% · missed L
Al Bidda SC2–0Qatar U2331 Aug · away
Pick: Al Bidda SC 46% · hit D
UMM Salal1–1Qatar U2325 Aug · away
Pick: UMM Salal 62% · missed About this match
Vietnam U23 and Qatar U23 meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Vietnam U23 win 48.8%, draw 28.0%, Qatar U23 win 23.2%. The pick is Vietnam U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.5%. Both teams to score: 41.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.