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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Vvsb vs Gemert

Vvsb Home · Elo 1,567
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gemert Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gemert win
Vvsb win
35.2%
Draw
24.2%
Gemert winPick
40.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

Vvsb history53 matches
Gemert history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Gemert are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,567 against 1,564. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.91 goals a game over 53 matches for Vvsb, against 2.07 over 56 for Gemert.

  • Defences are close

    Vvsb concede 1.36 a game, Gemert 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Vvsb matches, against 63% for Gemert. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vvsb
Gemert@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.2
ELO
1564.1
53
ELO · Matches
56
1567.2
Current Team ELO
1564.1
1564.1
Current Opponent ELO
1567.2
3.11
Current ELO Difference
-3.11
0.50
Expected score
0.50
53
History Matches
56
0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
54.05
Overperformance
54.20
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
56
1.75
PPG
1.82
52.8%
Win rate
50.0%
17.0%
Draw rate
32.1%
30.2%
Loss rate
17.9%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
64.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.2%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
2.08
PPG
1.93
64.0%
Win rate
55.6%
16.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
18.5%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
2.07
81.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
56.6%
BTTS rate
66.1%
2.04
Goals for per game
2.19
88.0%
Scoring rate
88.9%
56.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
56
1.91
Goals Mean
2.07
1.74
Goals Std
1.40
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
50.9%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
26.4%
Scored 3+ rate
39.3%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
2.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.38
75.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.67
68.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
56
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.21
Conceded Std
1.19
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
56
0.91
Result entropy
0.93
2.28
Goal Difference Std
1.65
9.00
Stability score
7.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
49
17
Lead Matches
22
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.89
16
Trailing Matches
10
37.5%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.22
66.67
Portability Score
84.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO3.11
PPG-0.07
GF-0.17
GA-0.02
PPG0.50
PPG0.15
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.63
Stability score1.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate8.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-17.89
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO3.11
Current Opponent ELO-3.11
Current ELO Difference6.23
Expected score0.01
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vvsb

W
Vvsb4–0EVV28 Oct · home
Pick: Vvsb 74% · hit
L
Vvsb2–4Zwaluwen24 Oct · home
Pick: Vvsb 63% · missed
D
TOGB3–3Vvsb17 Oct · away
Pick: Vvsb 41% · missed
D
Groene Ster3–3Vvsb30 Aug · away
Pick: Vvsb 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gemert

W
Gemert3–1Excelsior Maassluis7 Nov · home
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 38% · missed
W
Gemert2–0Achilles Veen17 Oct · home
Pick: Gemert 78% · hit
L
Gemert0–2FC Lisse4 Oct · home
Pick: FC Lisse 42% · hit
L
Dongen3–2Gemert30 Aug · away
Pick: Dongen 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vvsb and Gemert meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Vvsb win 35.2%, draw 24.2%, Gemert win 40.6%. The pick is Gemert win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.