Weston-super-Mare vs Farnborough
Match result probability Model pick: Weston-super-Mare win
Weston-super-Mare winPick
50.5%
Draw
23.9%
Farnborough win
25.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.1%
No45.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%
How much we know
Weston-super-Mare history90 matches
Farnborough history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Weston-super-Mare
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Weston-super-Mare are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,524 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Farnborough score more
1.33 goals a game over 90 matches for Weston-super-Mare, against 1.60 over 82 for Farnborough.
-
Weston-super-Mare concede fewer
Weston-super-Mare concede 1.13 a game, Farnborough 1.82.
-
Farnborough games more often go over 2.5 goals
48% of Weston-super-Mare matches, against 62% for Farnborough. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Farnborough@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1523.5
ELO
1502.7
90
ELO · Matches
82
1523.5
Current Team ELO
1502.7
1502.7
Current Opponent ELO
1523.5
20.83
Current ELO Difference
-20.83
0.53
Expected score
0.47
90
History Matches
82
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.87
Overperformance
50.30
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals 90
90
Matches
82
1.60
PPG
1.27
46.7%
Win rate
35.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
43.9%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.9%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals 100
45
Matches
41
1.71
PPG
1.15
51.1%
Win rate
29.3%
17.8%
Draw rate
26.8%
31.1%
Loss rate
43.9%
64.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
51.2%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
45
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.60
74.4%
Scoring rate
76.8%
43.3%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.66
75.6%
Scoring rate
75.6%
35.6%
BTTS rate
68.3%
90
History Matches
82
1.33
Goals Mean
1.60
1.15
Goals Std
1.46
74.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.8%
35.6%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
17.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.66
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.82
61.1%
Conceding rate
84.1%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.85
53.3%
Conceding rate
90.2%
90
History Matches
82
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.25
Conceded Std
1.45
28.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.4%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.0%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
90
History Matches
82
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.88
Goal Difference Std
2.08
4.99
Stability score
3.95
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
89
Eligible Matches
81
28
Lead Matches
24
96.4%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.98
Lead Points Retention
0.78
22
Trailing Matches
34
22.7%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
2.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.64
74
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
10
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.00
53.13
Portability Score
58.69
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
90
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO20.83
PPG0.33
GF-0.26
GA-0.68
PPG0.56
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate23.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate36.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.68
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate23.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.39
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score1.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.80
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate25.6%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate6.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-5.56
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO20.83
Current Opponent ELO-20.83
Current ELO Difference41.66
Expected score0.06
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Weston-super-Mare
W
Weston-super-Mare4–1Braintree7 Nov · home
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 58% · hit L
Dorking Wanderers2–0Weston-super-Mare31 Oct · away
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 40% · missed L
Farnborough2–1Weston-super-Mare28 Oct · away
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 48% · missed L
Ebbsfleet United6–1Weston-super-Mare17 Oct · away
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 43% · missed D
Weston-super-Mare1–1Chelmsford City31 Aug · home
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 49% · missed Farnborough
L
Chelmsford City2–1Farnborough7 Nov · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 45% · hit L
Farnborough0–6Ebbsfleet United3 Nov · home
Pick: Farnborough 43% · missed L
Farnborough0–5Horsham31 Oct · home
Pick: Horsham 44% · hit W
Farnborough2–1Weston-super-Mare28 Oct · home
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 48% · missed L
Folkestone Invicta2–0Farnborough24 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit About this match
Weston-super-Mare and Farnborough meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Weston-super-Mare win 50.5%, draw 23.9%, Farnborough win 25.6%. The pick is Weston-super-Mare win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.