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Primera División Peru Round 17 2026

Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar

Alianza Atletico Home · Elo 1,532
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
FBC Melgar Away · Elo 1,557
Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FBC Melgar win
Alianza Atletico win
34.0%
Draw
26.3%
FBC Melgar winPick
39.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%

How much we know

Alianza Atletico history62 matches
FBC Melgar history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why FBC Melgar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,532 against 1,557. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • FBC Melgar score more

    1.23 goals a game over 62 matches for Alianza Atletico, against 1.49 over 67 for FBC Melgar.

  • Alianza Atletico concede fewer

    Alianza Atletico concede 0.98 a game, FBC Melgar 1.21.

  • FBC Melgar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Alianza Atletico matches, against 52% for FBC Melgar. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.1
ELO
1556.6
62
ELO · Matches
67
1532.1
Current Team ELO
1556.6
1556.6
Current Opponent ELO
1532.1
-24.48
Current ELO Difference
24.48
0.46
Expected score
0.54
62
History Matches
67
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.78
Overperformance
52.65
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
67
1.55
PPG
1.54
43.5%
Win rate
40.3%
24.2%
Draw rate
32.8%
32.3%
Loss rate
26.9%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
38.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
36
2.03
PPG
1.22
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
22.9%
Draw rate
47.2%
17.1%
Loss rate
27.8%
62.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
37.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.49
71.0%
Scoring rate
82.1%
43.5%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.28
74.3%
Scoring rate
80.6%
37.1%
BTTS rate
72.2%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.71
77.3%
Scoring rate
85.7%
59.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
62
History Matches
67
1.23
Goals Mean
1.49
1.08
Goals Std
1.16
71.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
33.9%
Scored 2+ rate
43.3%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.21
61.3%
Conceding rate
74.6%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.44
51.4%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.24
72.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
62
History Matches
67
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.04
Conceded Std
1.07
24.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.9%
9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.9%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
67
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.63
2.58
Stability score
1.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
66
17
Lead Matches
27
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
63.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.70
14
Trailing Matches
14
35.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.04
Rest days
83.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
28
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
21
1.27
PPG
1.57
31.8%
Win rate
42.9%
31.8%
Draw rate
28.6%
36.4%
Loss rate
28.6%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
22
Current Competition Matches
21
1.27
Current Competition PPG
1.57
0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.48
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.18
1.89
Portability PPG Range
0.55
41.70
Portability Score
73.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-24.48
PPG0.01
GF-0.27
GA-0.23
PPG-0.30
PPG0.81
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate31.9%
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score1.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate25.3%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.43
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.51
Portability PPG Range1.34
Portability Score-31.32
Rest days-1.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-24.48
Current Opponent ELO24.48
Current ELO Difference-48.96
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alianza Atletico

L
FC Cajamarca2–0Alianza Atletico7 Nov · away
Pick: Alianza Atletico 40% · missed
L
Sport Huancayo4–1Alianza Atletico24 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza Atletico 39% · missed
L
Alianza Atletico1–4Universitario18 Oct · home
Pick: Universitario 39% · hit
W
UCV Moquegua1–4Alianza Atletico30 Aug · away
Pick: UCV Moquegua 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FBC Melgar

W
FBC Melgar2–1Juan Pablo II College7 Nov · home
Pick: FBC Melgar 63% · hit
L
Sport Huancayo2–0FBC Melgar2 Nov · away
Pick: FBC Melgar 44% · missed
D
FBC Melgar1–1Comerciantes Unidos30 Oct · home
Pick: FBC Melgar 55% · missed
W
UTC Cajamarca1–2FBC Melgar23 Oct · away
Pick: FBC Melgar 44% · hit
W
FBC Melgar4–2Deportivo Garcilaso17 Oct · home
Pick: FBC Melgar 48% · hit

About this match

Alianza Atletico and FBC Melgar meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Alianza Atletico win 34.0%, draw 26.3%, FBC Melgar win 39.7%. The pick is FBC Melgar win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.