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Primera División Peru Round 17 2026

Cusco vs ADT

Cusco Home · Elo 1,508
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
ADT Away · Elo 1,476
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cusco win
Cusco winPick
48.8%
Draw
24.1%
ADT win
27.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Cusco history55 matches
ADT history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Cusco are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cusco are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,476. On rating alone Cusco would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Cusco score more

    1.40 goals a game over 55 matches for Cusco, against 1.22 over 60 for ADT.

  • Defences are close

    Cusco concede 1.35 a game, ADT 1.37.

  • Cusco games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Cusco matches, against 48% for ADT. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cusco
ADT@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.7
ELO
1475.9
55
ELO · Matches
60
1507.7
Current Team ELO
1475.9
1475.9
Current Opponent ELO
1507.7
31.81
Current ELO Difference
-31.81
0.55
Expected score
0.45
55
History Matches
60
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.93
Overperformance
48.92
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
1.90
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
60
1.42
PPG
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
21.8%
Draw rate
30.0%
38.2%
Loss rate
36.7%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.3%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
28
1.95
PPG
0.86
57.1%
Win rate
17.9%
23.8%
Draw rate
32.1%
19.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
21
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.22
70.9%
Scoring rate
73.3%
54.5%
BTTS rate
51.7%
1.90
Goals for per game
0.89
85.7%
Scoring rate
60.7%
52.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.14
81.0%
Scoring rate
76.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
52.4%
55
History Matches
60
1.40
Goals Mean
1.22
1.24
Goals Std
1.05
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
31.7%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.37
74.5%
Conceding rate
71.7%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.68
61.9%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.33
85.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
55
History Matches
60
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.36
Conceded Std
1.20
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.7%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
60
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.58
2.94
Stability score
0.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
60
20
Lead Matches
16
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.71
9
Trailing Matches
20
22.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
26
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.57
PPG
1.05
47.6%
Win rate
23.8%
14.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
38.1%
Loss rate
42.9%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.57
Current Competition PPG
1.05
-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.19
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.62
Portability PPG Range
0.70
40.99
Portability Score
63.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.81
PPG0.12
GF0.18
GA-0.02
PPG0.52
PPG1.10
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score2.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate17.5%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate1.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.14
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.43
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-22.47
Rest days-0.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.77
Current Team ELO31.81
Current Opponent ELO-31.81
Current ELO Difference63.62
Expected score0.09
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cusco

L
Atletico Grau3–0Cusco6 Nov · away
Pick: Atletico Grau 41% · hit
L
Cusco0–1Sport Boys1 Nov · home
Pick: Cusco 43% · missed
W
Cusco3–1Sporting Cristal24 Oct · home
Pick: Cusco 38% · hit
L
Sport Huancayo2–1Cusco16 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Huancayo 39% · hit
W
Cienciano1–2Cusco31 Aug · away
Pick: Cienciano 48% · missed

ADT

D
ADT1–1Sporting Cristal7 Nov · home
Pick: ADT 40% · missed
D
Comerciantes Unidos2–2ADT3 Nov · away
Pick: Comerciantes Unidos 43% · missed
D
Atletico Grau1–1ADT23 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Grau 45% · missed
L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas2–1ADT16 Oct · away
Pick: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 45% · hit
L
ADT1–3Sport Huancayo30 Aug · home
Pick: ADT 51% · missed

About this match

Cusco and ADT meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cusco win 48.8%, draw 24.1%, ADT win 27.1%. The pick is Cusco win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.