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Primera División Peru Round 17 2026

Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca

Alianza Lima Home · Elo 1,615
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Cajamarca Away · Elo 1,482
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alianza Lima win
Alianza Lima winPick
68.5%
Draw
20.0%
FC Cajamarca win
11.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Alianza Lima history76 matches
FC Cajamarca history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.5%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Alianza Lima are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Alianza Lima are rated 133 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,615 against 1,482. On rating alone Alianza Lima would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 76 matches for Alianza Lima, against 1.53 over 45 for FC Cajamarca.

  • Alianza Lima concede fewer

    Alianza Lima concede 0.89 a game, FC Cajamarca 1.47.

  • FC Cajamarca games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Alianza Lima matches, against 58% for FC Cajamarca. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1614.6
ELO
1481.9
76
ELO · Matches
45
1614.6
Current Team ELO
1481.9
1481.9
Current Opponent ELO
1614.6
132.7
Current ELO Difference
-132.7
0.68
Expected score
0.32
76
History Matches
45
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
56.13
Overperformance
49.24
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
45
1.89
PPG
1.44
53.9%
Win rate
40.0%
27.6%
Draw rate
24.4%
18.4%
Loss rate
35.6%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.8%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
20
2.15
PPG
1.00
65.0%
Win rate
25.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
15.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
40
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.53
82.9%
Scoring rate
77.8%
52.6%
BTTS rate
62.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.10
82.5%
Scoring rate
60.0%
45.0%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.57
90.5%
Scoring rate
76.2%
52.4%
BTTS rate
76.2%
76
History Matches
45
1.57
Goals Mean
1.53
1.30
Goals Std
1.17
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
43.4%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.4%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.89
Goals against per game
1.47
61.8%
Conceding rate
77.8%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.65
55.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.62
Goals against per game
1.90
57.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
45
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.47
0.91
Conceded Std
1.15
19.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.7%
6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
45
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.55
8.98
Stability score
1.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
45
26
Lead Matches
10
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.70
13
Trailing Matches
18
46.2%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
27.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.02
Rest days
85.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
47
Normal Rest History Matches
22
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
2.29
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
23.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
4.8%
Loss rate
47.6%
61.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
21
Current Competition Matches
21
2.29
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
8
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.95
Portability PPG Range
0.90
42.35
Portability Score
52.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO132.7
PPG0.45
GF0.03
GA-0.57
PPG1.29
PPG1.15
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches31
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches31
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate5.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches31
Conceded Mean-0.57
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches31
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score7.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches31
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate24.6%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate18.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches31
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.48
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range1.05
Portability Score-10.15
Rest days-2.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO132.7
Current Opponent ELO-132.7
Current ELO Difference265.4
Expected score0.36
History Matches31
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alianza Lima

W
Alianza Lima1–0Cienciano4 Nov · home
Pick: Alianza Lima 59% · hit
W
Alianza Lima3–1Atletico Grau18 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza Lima 65% · hit
L
Alianza Lima0–1Deportivo Garcilaso30 Aug · home
Pick: Alianza Lima 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Cajamarca

W
FC Cajamarca2–0Alianza Atletico7 Nov · home
Pick: Alianza Atletico 40% · missed
L
Sporting Cristal5–0FC Cajamarca2 Nov · away
Pick: Sporting Cristal 60% · hit
L
Sport Boys4–2FC Cajamarca25 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Boys 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Alianza Lima win 68.5%, draw 20.0%, FC Cajamarca win 11.5%. The pick is Alianza Lima win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.