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Primera División Peru Round 17 2026

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau

UCV Moquegua Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atletico Grau Away · Elo 1,471
Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: UCV Moquegua win
UCV Moquegua winPick
40.5%
Draw
27.8%
Atletico Grau win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.1%
Under 2.555.9%

How much we know

UCV Moquegua history54 matches
Atletico Grau history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why UCV Moquegua are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • UCV Moquegua are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,471. On rating alone UCV Moquegua would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • UCV Moquegua score more

    1.20 goals a game over 54 matches for UCV Moquegua, against 1.08 over 65 for Atletico Grau.

  • Defences are close

    UCV Moquegua concede 1.13 a game, Atletico Grau 1.25.

  • UCV Moquegua games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of UCV Moquegua matches, against 40% for Atletico Grau. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.9
ELO
1470.5
54
ELO · Matches
65
1515.9
Current Team ELO
1470.5
1470.5
Current Opponent ELO
1515.9
45.39
Current ELO Difference
-45.39
0.56
Expected score
0.44
54
History Matches
65
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.28
Overperformance
48.94
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
65
1.46
PPG
1.12
38.9%
Win rate
26.2%
29.6%
Draw rate
33.8%
31.5%
Loss rate
40.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
1.89
PPG
0.70
53.6%
Win rate
13.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
30.0%
17.9%
Loss rate
56.7%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.08
68.5%
Scoring rate
64.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.64
Goals for per game
0.93
78.6%
Scoring rate
60.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
53.3%
0.96
Goals for per game
0.86
56.5%
Scoring rate
50.0%
43.5%
BTTS rate
31.8%
54
History Matches
65
1.20
Goals Mean
1.08
1.16
Goals Std
1.04
68.5%
Scored 1+ rate
64.6%
35.2%
Scored 2+ rate
29.2%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.25
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.63
60.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.00
69.6%
Conceding rate
63.6%
54
History Matches
65
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.04
Conceded Std
1.02
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.8%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
65
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.35
0.64
Stability score
1.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
65
13
Lead Matches
18
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.67
15
Trailing Matches
16
26.7%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.21
Rest days
85.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
28
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
22
1.09
PPG
1.18
26.1%
Win rate
31.8%
30.4%
Draw rate
22.7%
43.5%
Loss rate
45.5%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
45.5%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
31.8%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
23
Current Competition Matches
22
1.09
Current Competition PPG
1.18
-0.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.14
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.73
Portability PPG Range
0.95
61.42
Portability Score
59.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.39
PPG0.34
GF0.13
GA-0.12
PPG-0.09
PPG1.19
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate3.9%
Scored 2+ rate6.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-0.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.4%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate7.9%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.22
Portability Score1.75
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.34
Current Team ELO45.39
Current Opponent ELO-45.39
Current ELO Difference90.78
Expected score0.13
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

UCV Moquegua

D
UCV Moquegua0–0Club Deportivo Los Chankas1 Nov · home
Pick: UCV Moquegua 44% · missed
L
UCV Moquegua1–4Alianza Atletico30 Aug · home
Pick: UCV Moquegua 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atletico Grau

W
Atletico Grau3–0Cusco6 Nov · home
Pick: Atletico Grau 41% · hit
L
Atletico Grau1–3Universitario1 Nov · home
Pick: Universitario 40% · hit
D
Atletico Grau1–1ADT23 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Grau 45% · missed
L
Alianza Lima3–1Atletico Grau18 Oct · away
Pick: Alianza Lima 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

UCV Moquegua and Atletico Grau meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: UCV Moquegua win 40.5%, draw 27.8%, Atletico Grau win 31.7%. The pick is UCV Moquegua win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.1%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.