UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Match result probability Model pick: Club Deportivo Los Chankas win
UTC Cajamarca win
35.5%
Draw
26.0%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas winPick
38.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.9%
No45.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%
How much we know
UTC Cajamarca history57 matches
Club Deportivo Los Chankas history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Club Deportivo Los Chankas are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Club Deportivo Los Chankas are rated 112 Elo points higher
Elo 1,547 against 1,435. On rating alone Club Deportivo Los Chankas would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
-
Club Deportivo Los Chankas score more
1.12 goals a game over 57 matches for UTC Cajamarca, against 1.29 over 59 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
-
Defences are close
UTC Cajamarca concede 1.49 a game, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1.44.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
51% of UTC Cajamarca matches, against 58% for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1435.0
ELO
1546.8
57
ELO · Matches
59
1435.0
Current Team ELO
1546.8
1546.8
Current Opponent ELO
1435.0
-111.7
Current ELO Difference
111.7
0.34
Expected score
0.66
57
History Matches
59
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
46.60
Overperformance
53.00
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
59
1.00
PPG
1.58
22.8%
Win rate
45.8%
31.6%
Draw rate
20.3%
45.6%
Loss rate
33.9%
77.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.8%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
29
1.23
PPG
0.97
29.0%
Win rate
24.1%
35.5%
Draw rate
24.1%
35.5%
Loss rate
51.7%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
31
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.12
Goals for per game
1.29
66.7%
Scoring rate
76.3%
56.1%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.16
Goals for per game
0.79
64.5%
Scoring rate
62.1%
51.6%
BTTS rate
51.7%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.35
72.7%
Scoring rate
78.3%
63.6%
BTTS rate
52.2%
57
History Matches
59
1.12
Goals Mean
1.29
1.04
Goals Std
1.03
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.9%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.6%
1.16
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.44
78.9%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.76
71.0%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.64
Goals against per game
1.43
81.8%
Conceding rate
73.9%
57
History Matches
59
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.06
Conceded Std
1.20
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
59
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.69
3.59
Stability score
4.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
59
11
Lead Matches
20
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.85
21
Trailing Matches
17
23.8%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
81.04
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
28
Long Rest History Matches
34
0.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
22
Matches
23
0.91
PPG
1.78
18.2%
Win rate
52.2%
36.4%
Draw rate
21.7%
45.5%
Loss rate
26.1%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
22
Current Competition Matches
23
0.91
Current Competition PPG
1.78
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.09
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.09
Portability PPG Range
0.61
49.57
Portability Score
66.60
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-111.7
PPG-0.58
GF-0.17
GA0.05
PPG-0.87
PPG0.26
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate9.6%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-0.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.87
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.41
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score-17.03
Rest days-1.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO-111.7
Current Opponent ELO111.7
Current ELO Difference-223.5
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
UTC Cajamarca
L
UTC Cajamarca2–3Deportivo Garcilaso2 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo Garcilaso 39% · hit L
UTC Cajamarca1–2FBC Melgar23 Oct · home
Pick: FBC Melgar 44% · hit L
Cienciano1–0UTC Cajamarca18 Oct · away
Pick: Cienciano 56% · hit L
UTC Cajamarca2–4Universitario29 Aug · home
Pick: Universitario 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
D
UCV Moquegua0–0Club Deportivo Los Chankas1 Nov · away
Pick: UCV Moquegua 44% · missed L
Deportivo Garcilaso4–1Club Deportivo Los Chankas25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Garcilaso 53% · hit W
Club Deportivo Los Chankas2–1ADT16 Oct · home
Pick: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 45% · hit L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas3–4Juan Pablo II College29 Aug · home
Pick: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 55% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
UTC Cajamarca and Club Deportivo Los Chankas meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: UTC Cajamarca win 35.5%, draw 26.0%, Club Deportivo Los Chankas win 38.5%. The pick is Club Deportivo Los Chankas win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.7%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.