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Primera División Peru Round 17 2026

Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

Comerciantes Unidos Home · Elo 1,467
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sport Boys Away · Elo 1,499
Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, Cutervo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sport Boys win
Comerciantes Unidos win
33.7%
Draw
29.7%
Sport Boys winPick
36.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Comerciantes Unidos history56 matches
Sport Boys history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Sport Boys are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sport Boys are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,467. On rating alone Sport Boys would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.09 goals a game over 56 matches for Comerciantes Unidos, against 1.18 over 56 for Sport Boys.

  • Sport Boys concede fewer

    Comerciantes Unidos concede 1.48 a game, Sport Boys 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Comerciantes Unidos matches, against 45% for Sport Boys. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Boys@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.2
ELO
1498.6
56
ELO · Matches
56
1467.2
Current Team ELO
1498.6
1498.6
Current Opponent ELO
1467.2
-31.43
Current ELO Difference
31.43
0.45
Expected score
0.55
56
History Matches
56
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
48.24
Overperformance
50.29
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
56
1.04
PPG
1.20
23.2%
Win rate
30.4%
33.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
42.9%
Loss rate
41.1%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
27
1.31
PPG
0.85
27.6%
Win rate
18.5%
48.3%
Draw rate
29.6%
24.1%
Loss rate
51.9%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
37.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.18
69.6%
Scoring rate
67.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
48.2%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.07
72.4%
Scoring rate
63.0%
55.2%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.00
77.3%
Scoring rate
65.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
40.0%
56
History Matches
56
1.09
Goals Mean
1.18
0.97
Goals Std
1.17
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
8.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.27
78.6%
Conceding rate
73.2%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.56
65.5%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.00
77.3%
Conceding rate
60.0%
56
History Matches
56
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.16
Conceded Std
1.03
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.1%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
56
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.48
2.71
Stability score
1.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
56
6
Lead Matches
15
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.67
18
Trailing Matches
18
38.9%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.11
Rest days
83.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
30
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
20
1.32
PPG
1.25
31.8%
Win rate
30.0%
36.4%
Draw rate
35.0%
31.8%
Loss rate
35.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
22
Current Competition Matches
20
1.32
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.45
Portability PPG Range
1.30
69.10
Portability Score
46.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-31.43
PPG-0.16
GF-0.09
GA0.21
PPG0.07
PPG0.46
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score1.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate40.0%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.05
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.85
Portability Score22.33
Rest days0.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO-31.43
Current Opponent ELO31.43
Current ELO Difference-62.85
Expected score-0.09
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Comerciantes Unidos

D
Comerciantes Unidos2–2ADT3 Nov · home
Pick: Comerciantes Unidos 43% · missed
D
FBC Melgar1–1Comerciantes Unidos30 Oct · away
Pick: FBC Melgar 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sport Boys

W
Cusco0–1Sport Boys1 Nov · away
Pick: Cusco 43% · missed
W
Sport Boys4–2FC Cajamarca25 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Boys 52% · hit
L
Juan Pablo II College2–0Sport Boys17 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Boys 39% · missed
W
Sport Boys1–0Sporting Cristal30 Aug · home
Pick: Sport Boys 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, Cutervo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Comerciantes Unidos win 33.7%, draw 29.7%, Sport Boys win 36.5%. The pick is Sport Boys win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.