Alingsås W vs Sandviken W
Match result probability Model pick: Alingsås W win
Alingsås W winPick
61.6%
Draw
12.3%
Sandviken W win
26.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.9%
No47.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%
How much we know
Alingsås W history48 matches
Sandviken W history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Alingsås W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.6%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Alingsås W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sandviken W are rated 54 Elo points higher
Elo 1,422 against 1,368. On rating alone Sandviken W would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Sandviken W score far more
0.79 goals a game over 48 matches for Alingsås W, against 1.31 over 16 for Sandviken W.
-
Defences are close
Alingsås W concede 2.48 a game, Sandviken W 2.75.
-
Sandviken W games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of Alingsås W matches, against 69% for Sandviken W. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sandviken W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1368.1
ELO
1421.8
48
ELO · Matches
16
1368.1
Current Team ELO
1421.8
1421.8
Current Opponent ELO
1368.1
-53.64
Current ELO Difference
53.64
0.42
Expected score
0.58
48
History Matches
16
-0.14
Residual Mean
-0.24
40.31
Overperformance
39.20
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.04
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.13
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
16
0.54
PPG
0.56
12.5%
Win rate
12.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
18.8%
70.8%
Loss rate
68.8%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
8
0.61
PPG
0.88
13.0%
Win rate
25.0%
21.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
65.2%
Loss rate
62.5%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.33
23
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.79
Goals for per game
1.31
47.9%
Scoring rate
50.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
43.8%
0.61
Goals for per game
1.38
39.1%
Scoring rate
37.5%
30.4%
BTTS rate
25.0%
0.87
Goals for per game
1.00
53.3%
Scoring rate
46.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
48
History Matches
16
0.79
Goals Mean
1.31
1.10
Goals Std
1.76
47.9%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
10.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
0.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
2.48
Goals against per game
2.75
87.5%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.87
Goals against per game
2.25
82.6%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.47
Goals against per game
2.93
80.0%
Conceding rate
93.3%
48
History Matches
16
2.48
Conceded Mean
2.75
1.94
Conceded Std
1.79
60.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
68.8%
43.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
56.3%
1.87
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
52.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
60.9%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
52.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
60.9%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
16
0.73
Result entropy
0.76
2.20
Goal Difference Std
2.76
26.92
Stability score
24.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
48
Eligible Matches
16
7
Lead Matches
3
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.52
Lead Points Retention
0.44
26
Trailing Matches
10
11.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
3.8%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.27
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.08
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.31
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.44
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
7
0.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
27
Long Rest History Matches
8
0.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
15
Matches
15
0.93
PPG
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
6.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
46.7%
Loss rate
73.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
15
Current Competition Matches
15
0.93
Current Competition PPG
0.40
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.93
4
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.36
Portability PPG Std
—
0.93
Portability PPG Range
—
58.02
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-53.64
PPG-0.02
GF-0.52
GA-0.27
PPG0.53
PPG-0.27
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches32
Goals Mean-0.52
Goals Std-0.66
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.94
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.63
History Matches32
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.56
Stability score2.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.57
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches19
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO-53.64
Current Opponent ELO53.64
Current ELO Difference-107.3
Expected score-0.15
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance1.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Alingsås W
D
Elfsborg W0–0Alingsås W30 Oct · away
Pick: Elfsborg W 75% · missed L
Alingsås W0–2KIF Örebro W24 Oct · home
Pick: KIF Örebro W 67% · hit W
Alingsås W2–0Häcken II W17 Oct · home
Pick: Alingsås W 51% · hit L
Alingsås W0–3Elfsborg W8 Oct · home
Pick: Elfsborg W 49% · hit L
Göteborg W2–1Alingsås W4 Oct · away
Pick: Göteborg W 77% · hit Sandviken W
L
Jitex W5–1Sandviken W1 Nov · away
Pick: Jitex W 74% · hit W
Sandviken W3–2Linköping W25 Oct · home
Pick: Linköping W 78% · missed L
Husqvarna W3–1Sandviken W17 Oct · away
Pick: Husqvarna W 68% · hit W
Gamla Upsala W1–3Sandviken W29 Aug · away
Pick: Gamla Upsala W 61% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Alingsås W and Sandviken W meet in Elitettan on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Alingsås W win 61.6%, draw 12.3%, Sandviken W win 26.1%. The pick is Alingsås W win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.6%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.