Göteborg W vs Umeå W
Match result probability Model pick: Göteborg W win
Göteborg W winPick
47.5%
Draw
23.9%
Umeå W win
28.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.9%
No43.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%
How much we know
Göteborg W history16 matches
Umeå W history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Göteborg W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Göteborg W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Göteborg W are rated 43 Elo points higher
Elo 1,584 against 1,541. On rating alone Göteborg W would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Göteborg W score far more
2.88 goals a game over 16 matches for Göteborg W, against 1.82 over 49 for Umeå W.
-
Göteborg W concede fewer
Göteborg W concede 0.88 a game, Umeå W 1.22.
-
Göteborg W games more often go over 2.5 goals
75% of Göteborg W matches, against 53% for Umeå W. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Umeå W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1584.0
ELO
1540.8
16
ELO · Matches
49
1584.0
Current Team ELO
1540.8
1540.8
Current Opponent ELO
1584.0
43.23
Current ELO Difference
-43.23
0.56
Expected score
0.44
16
History Matches
49
0.25
Residual Mean
0.04
61.03
Overperformance
52.97
0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.60
3.80
Goals for per game
2.40
0.20
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.30
3.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.47
Overall performance9 signals 90
16
Matches
49
2.31
PPG
1.67
68.8%
Win rate
44.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
32.7%
6.3%
Loss rate
22.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
24
2.57
PPG
1.58
85.7%
Win rate
41.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
14.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
7
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.88
Goals for per game
1.82
100.0%
Scoring rate
79.6%
56.3%
BTTS rate
51.0%
2.86
Goals for per game
1.92
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.73
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
53.3%
16
History Matches
49
2.88
Goals Mean
1.82
1.49
Goals Std
1.60
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
81.3%
Scored 2+ rate
49.0%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
2.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.92
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.88
Goals against per game
1.22
56.3%
Conceding rate
65.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.21
71.4%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.27
60.0%
Conceding rate
73.3%
16
History Matches
49
0.88
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.11
Conceded Std
1.25
12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
16
History Matches
49
0.71
Result entropy
0.97
2.06
Goal Difference Std
2.26
29.23
Stability score
3.48
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
16
Eligible Matches
49
9
Lead Matches
19
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.86
2
Trailing Matches
13
100.0%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.19
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.00
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
6
Normal Rest History Matches
28
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
9
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals 170
15
Matches
15
2.27
PPG
1.60
66.7%
Win rate
46.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
6.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
15
Current Competition Matches
15
2.27
Current Competition PPG
1.60
1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.62
—
Portability PPG Range
1.46
—
Portability Score
44.84
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
16
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.23
PPG0.64
GF1.06
GA-0.35
PPG0.67
PPG0.99
PPG0.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-33
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-33
Goals Mean1.06
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate20.4%
Scored 2+ rate32.3%
Scored 3+ rate23.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-33
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-33
Result entropy-0.26
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score25.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches-33
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate21.1%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate61.5%
Trailing Win Rate34.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-33
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.47
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.36
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO43.23
Current Opponent ELO-43.23
Current ELO Difference86.46
Expected score0.12
History Matches-33
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance8.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.41
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Göteborg W
W
Gamla Upsala W2–4Göteborg W7 Nov · away
Pick: Göteborg W 75% · hit W
Häcken II W1–4Göteborg W31 Oct · away
Pick: Göteborg W 76% · hit W
Göteborg W2–0Enskede W24 Oct · home
Pick: Göteborg W 73% · hit W
Örebro SK W0–4Göteborg W18 Oct · away
Pick: Göteborg W 66% · hit W
Göteborg W2–1Alingsås W4 Oct · home
Pick: Göteborg W 77% · hit Umeå W
W
Umeå W3–0Örebro SK W1 Nov · home
Pick: Umeå W 57% · hit W
Trelleborg W0–4Umeå W24 Oct · away
Pick: Umeå W 42% · hit D
Linköping W0–0Umeå W17 Oct · away
Pick: Linköping W 45% · missed W
Umeå W2–0Husqvarna W4 Oct · home
Pick: Umeå W 61% · hit L
KIF Örebro W2–1Umeå W29 Aug · away
Pick: KIF Örebro W 53% · hit About this match
Göteborg W and Umeå W meet in Elitettan on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Gamla Ullevi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Göteborg W win 47.5%, draw 23.9%, Umeå W win 28.6%. The pick is Göteborg W win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.