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Elitettan Sweden Round 26 2026

Elfsborg W vs Husqvarna W

Elfsborg W Home · Elo 1,553
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Husqvarna W Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Elfsborg W win
Elfsborg W winPick
65.1%
Draw
18.9%
Husqvarna W win
16.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Elfsborg W history42 matches
Husqvarna W history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.1%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Elfsborg W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Elfsborg W are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,500. On rating alone Elfsborg W would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Husqvarna W score more

    1.67 goals a game over 42 matches for Elfsborg W, against 1.94 over 16 for Husqvarna W.

  • Elfsborg W concede fewer

    Elfsborg W concede 1.02 a game, Husqvarna W 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Elfsborg W matches, against 63% for Husqvarna W. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elfsborg W
Husqvarna W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.1
ELO
1499.9
42
ELO · Matches
16
1553.1
Current Team ELO
1499.9
1499.9
Current Opponent ELO
1553.1
53.19
Current ELO Difference
-53.19
0.58
Expected score
0.42
42
History Matches
16
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
54.60
Overperformance
49.48
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
2.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
0.50
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.54
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
16
1.67
PPG
1.38
50.0%
Win rate
37.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
37.5%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
9
1.64
PPG
1.89
45.5%
Win rate
55.6%
27.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
27.3%
Loss rate
22.2%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.11
22
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.94
78.6%
Scoring rate
81.3%
47.6%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.41
Goals for per game
2.44
68.2%
Scoring rate
88.9%
45.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.47
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
42
History Matches
16
1.67
Goals Mean
1.94
1.43
Goals Std
2.16
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
2.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.56
64.3%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
68.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.67
26.7%
Conceding rate
86.7%
42
History Matches
16
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.56
0.99
Conceded Std
1.17
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
73.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
16
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.55
7.94
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
16
18
Lead Matches
5
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.73
11
Trailing Matches
6
27.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.81
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
24
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
2.27
PPG
1.27
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
26.7%
Draw rate
26.7%
6.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
15
Current Competition Matches
15
2.27
Current Competition PPG
1.27
1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.44
Portability PPG Std
—
0.88
Portability PPG Range
—
53.13
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO53.19
PPG0.29
GF-0.27
GA-0.54
PPG1.00
PPG-0.25
PPG0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches26
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate20.7%
History Matches26
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.74
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches26
Conceded Mean-0.54
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.73
History Matches26
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.60
Stability score6.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.08
Eligible Matches26
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate17.8%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate1.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match0.83
Current Team ELO53.19
Current Opponent ELO-53.19
Current ELO Difference106.4
Expected score0.15
History Matches26
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Elfsborg W

W
Jitex W0–1Elfsborg W7 Nov · away
Pick: Elfsborg W 55% · hit
D
Elfsborg W0–0Alingsås W30 Oct · home
Pick: Elfsborg W 75% · missed
W
Örebro SK W1–4Elfsborg W24 Oct · away
Pick: Elfsborg W 56% · hit
W
Elfsborg W2–0Gamla Upsala W17 Oct · home
Pick: Elfsborg W 71% · hit
W
Alingsås W0–3Elfsborg W8 Oct · away
Pick: Elfsborg W 49% · hit

Husqvarna W

D
Husqvarna W1–1Häcken II W7 Nov · home
Pick: Husqvarna W 60% · missed
D
Enskede W1–1Husqvarna W31 Oct · away
Pick: Enskede W 37% · missed
D
Husqvarna W0–0Jitex W24 Oct · home
Pick: Husqvarna W 43% · missed
W
Husqvarna W3–1Sandviken W17 Oct · home
Pick: Husqvarna W 68% · hit
L
Umeå W2–0Husqvarna W4 Oct · away
Pick: Umeå W 61% · hit

About this match

Elfsborg W and Husqvarna W meet in Elitettan on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Elfsborg W win 65.1%, draw 18.9%, Husqvarna W win 16.0%. The pick is Elfsborg W win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.