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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

America Mineiro vs Avai

America Mineiro Home · Elo 1,424
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Avai Away · Elo 1,540
Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Avai win
America Mineiro win
33.8%
Draw
26.8%
Avai winPick
39.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%

How much we know

America Mineiro history68 matches
Avai history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Avai are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Avai are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,424. On rating alone Avai would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Avai score far more

    0.87 goals a game over 68 matches for America Mineiro, against 1.37 over 82 for Avai.

  • Defences are close

    America Mineiro concede 1.32 a game, Avai 1.21.

  • Avai games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of America Mineiro matches, against 55% for Avai. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
America Mineiro
Avai@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1424.0
ELO
1540.0
68
ELO · Matches
82
1424.0
Current Team ELO
1540.0
1540.0
Current Opponent ELO
1424.0
-116.1
Current ELO Difference
116.1
0.34
Expected score
0.66
68
History Matches
82
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
45.43
Overperformance
52.32
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
82
0.93
PPG
1.46
19.1%
Win rate
40.2%
35.3%
Draw rate
25.6%
45.6%
Loss rate
34.1%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.9%
16.2%
Over 3.5 rate
19.5%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
39
1.25
PPG
1.03
28.1%
Win rate
25.6%
40.6%
Draw rate
25.6%
31.3%
Loss rate
48.7%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
32
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.87
Goals for per game
1.37
66.2%
Scoring rate
78.0%
52.9%
BTTS rate
54.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.05
78.1%
Scoring rate
71.8%
59.4%
BTTS rate
59.0%
0.70
Goals for per game
1.05
60.0%
Scoring rate
68.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
45.5%
68
History Matches
82
0.87
Goals Mean
1.37
0.80
Goals Std
1.04
66.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
14.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.7%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.21
80.9%
Conceding rate
72.0%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.51
75.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.14
85.0%
Conceding rate
68.2%
68
History Matches
82
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.01
Conceded Std
1.10
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.9%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.51
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
82
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.32
Goal Difference Std
1.72
5.15
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
82
11
Lead Matches
22
36.4%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.48
Lead Points Retention
0.94
22
Trailing Matches
23
27.3%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.88
Rest days
83.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
51
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
29
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
22
0.50
PPG
1.27
10.0%
Win rate
36.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
70.0%
Loss rate
45.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
20
Current Competition Matches
22
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.27
-1.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.09
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.17
Portability PPG Range
1.09
55.78
Portability Score
59.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-116.1
PPG-0.54
GF-0.50
GA0.12
PPG-0.77
PPG0.22
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score3.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.55
Lead Points Retention-0.45
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate9.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.77
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.96
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-3.28
Rest days-1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-116.1
Current Opponent ELO116.1
Current ELO Difference-232.2
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

America Mineiro

W
Londrina1–3America Mineiro1 Nov · away
Pick: Londrina 47% · missed
W
America Mineiro1–0Cuiaba26 Oct · home
Pick: Cuiaba 37% · missed
W
America Mineiro1–0Operario-PR17 Oct · home
Pick: Operario-PR 40% · missed
L
Criciuma1–0America Mineiro12 Oct · away
Pick: Criciuma 61% · hit
L
America Mineiro0–1Fortaleza EC7 Oct · home
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · hit

Avai

W
Avai2–1São Bernardo7 Nov · home
Pick: Avai 47% · hit
L
Nautico Recife1–0Avai31 Oct · away
Pick: Nautico Recife 40% · hit
L
Avai0–2Botafogo SP24 Oct · home
Pick: Avai 53% · missed
D
Avai0–0Athletic Club18 Oct · home
Pick: Avai 45% · missed
W
Avai2–1Londrina7 Oct · home
Pick: Avai 54% · hit

About this match

America Mineiro and Avai meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: America Mineiro win 33.8%, draw 26.8%, Avai win 39.5%. The pick is Avai win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.8%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.