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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

CRB vs Ceara

CRB Home · Elo 1,569
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ceara Away · Elo 1,521
Estádio Rei Pelé, Maceio Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CRB win
CRB winPick
46.8%
Draw
29.3%
Ceara win
23.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

CRB history77 matches
Ceara history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why CRB are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CRB are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,521. On rating alone CRB would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.38 goals a game over 77 matches for CRB, against 1.37 over 81 for Ceara.

  • Ceara concede fewer

    CRB concede 1.09 a game, Ceara 0.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of CRB matches, against 38% for Ceara. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CRB
Ceara@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1569.3
ELO
1520.8
77
ELO · Matches
81
1569.3
Current Team ELO
1520.8
1520.8
Current Opponent ELO
1569.3
48.47
Current ELO Difference
-48.47
0.57
Expected score
0.43
77
History Matches
81
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.56
Overperformance
51.56
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
81
1.62
PPG
1.56
45.5%
Win rate
43.2%
26.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
28.6%
Loss rate
30.9%
70.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.1%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.3%
22.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.3%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
37
1.95
PPG
1.35
59.0%
Win rate
37.8%
17.9%
Draw rate
21.6%
23.1%
Loss rate
40.5%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.5%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
13.5%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
39
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.37
76.6%
Scoring rate
74.1%
44.2%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.22
79.5%
Scoring rate
64.9%
35.9%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.04
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.2%
77
History Matches
81
1.38
Goals Mean
1.37
1.14
Goals Std
1.26
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
41.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.8%
11.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.09
Goals against per game
0.94
59.7%
Conceding rate
67.9%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.05
48.7%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Conceding rate
82.6%
77
History Matches
81
1.09
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.16
Conceded Std
0.84
32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.8%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.2%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
51.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
51.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
81
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.59
2.93
Stability score
2.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
81
28
Lead Matches
26
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.86
21
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.88
Rest days
83.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.78
43
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
27
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
23
1.50
PPG
1.09
40.0%
Win rate
26.1%
30.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
30.0%
Loss rate
43.5%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
20
Current Competition Matches
23
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.09
0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.26
9
Competition Season Count
8
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.93
Portability PPG Range
1.63
48.20
Portability Score
46.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO48.47
PPG0.07
GF0.01
GA0.15
PPG0.41
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate27.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate2.5%
Scored 2+ rate5.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.49
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score0.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.49
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate1.8%
Trailing Win Rate3.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG0.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.31
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score1.51
Rest days-3.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO48.47
Current Opponent ELO-48.47
Current ELO Difference96.95
Expected score0.14
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CRB

L
Goias2–1CRB2 Nov · away
Pick: Goias 39% · hit
W
CRB2–1Londrina24 Oct · home
Pick: CRB 57% · hit
L
CRB0–1Botafogo SP18 Oct · home
Pick: CRB 60% · missed
D
Fortaleza EC2–2CRB12 Oct · away
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · missed
W
CRB3–1Atletico Goianiense7 Oct · home
Pick: CRB 50% · hit

Ceara

L
Athletic Club2–1Ceara2 Nov · away
Pick: Athletic Club 41% · hit
L
Ceara0–2Goias27 Oct · home
Pick: Ceara 42% · missed
D
Ceara2–2Juventude17 Oct · home
Pick: Ceara 39% · missed
L
Botafogo SP1–0Ceara13 Oct · away
Pick: Botafogo SP 37% · hit
W
Ceara1–0Criciuma8 Oct · home
Pick: Ceara 37% · hit

About this match

CRB and Ceara meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estádio Rei Pelé, Maceio. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: CRB win 46.8%, draw 29.3%, Ceara win 23.9%. The pick is CRB win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.