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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova

Fortaleza EC Home · Elo 1,586
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vila Nova Away · Elo 1,565
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fortaleza EC win
Fortaleza EC winPick
45.9%
Draw
31.0%
Vila Nova win
23.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.8%
No55.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.6%
Under 2.559.4%

How much we know

Fortaleza EC history88 matches
Vila Nova history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Fortaleza EC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,586 against 1,565. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Vila Nova score more

    1.11 goals a game over 88 matches for Fortaleza EC, against 1.24 over 78 for Vila Nova.

  • Defences are close

    Fortaleza EC concede 1.02 a game, Vila Nova 0.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    36% of Fortaleza EC matches, against 35% for Vila Nova. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1586.4
ELO
1564.9
88
ELO · Matches
78
1586.4
Current Team ELO
1564.9
1564.9
Current Opponent ELO
1586.4
21.46
Current ELO Difference
-21.46
0.53
Expected score
0.47
88
History Matches
78
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
53.20
Overperformance
52.84
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
78
1.43
PPG
1.59
38.6%
Win rate
44.9%
27.3%
Draw rate
24.4%
34.1%
Loss rate
30.8%
65.9%
Over 1.5 rate
64.1%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
11.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
41
1.85
PPG
1.32
56.4%
Win rate
39.0%
15.4%
Draw rate
14.6%
28.2%
Loss rate
46.3%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
61.0%
43.6%
Over 2.5 rate
24.4%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
9.8%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
39
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.24
71.6%
Scoring rate
67.9%
42.0%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.49
Goals for per game
0.90
79.5%
Scoring rate
56.1%
38.5%
BTTS rate
31.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.45
70.0%
Scoring rate
68.2%
35.0%
BTTS rate
40.9%
88
History Matches
78
1.11
Goals Mean
1.24
1.05
Goals Std
1.28
71.6%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
1.49
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
0.94
59.1%
Conceding rate
61.5%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.05
53.8%
Conceding rate
70.7%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.05
50.0%
Conceding rate
68.2%
88
History Matches
78
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.11
Conceded Std
0.90
29.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.9%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.1%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.9%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
78
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.64
0.91
Stability score
2.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
78
34
Lead Matches
26
73.5%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.87
22
Trailing Matches
18
22.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.92
Rest days
82.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
54
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
22
1.65
PPG
1.68
45.0%
Win rate
50.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
31.8%
55.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
30.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
20
Current Competition Matches
22
1.65
Current Competition PPG
1.68
0.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.41
9
Competition Season Count
7
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.14
Portability PPG Range
1.30
56.77
Portability Score
52.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.46
PPG-0.16
GF-0.13
GA0.09
PPG-0.03
PPG0.53
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate16.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.90
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches10
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-2.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.94
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.03
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.11
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score4.00
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Current Team ELO21.46
Current Opponent ELO-21.46
Current ELO Difference42.92
Expected score0.06
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fortaleza EC

L
Novorizontino2–1Fortaleza EC7 Nov · away
Pick: Novorizontino 43% · hit
D
Fortaleza EC0–0Atletico Goianiense2 Nov · home
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · missed
D
Ponte Preta2–2Fortaleza EC24 Oct · away
Pick: Fortaleza EC 62% · missed
W
Sport Recife0–2Fortaleza EC16 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Recife 37% · missed
D
Fortaleza EC2–2CRB12 Oct · home
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · missed

Vila Nova

L
São Bernardo3–2Vila Nova24 Oct · away
Pick: São Bernardo 38% · hit
D
Vila Nova2–2Novorizontino18 Oct · home
Pick: Vila Nova 39% · missed
D
Vila Nova0–0Cuiaba7 Oct · home
Pick: Vila Nova 52% · missed
W
Vila Nova2–0Ceara30 Aug · home
Pick: Vila Nova 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Fortaleza EC win 45.9%, draw 31.0%, Vila Nova win 23.1%. The pick is Fortaleza EC win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.6%. Both teams to score: 44.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.