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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

Juventude vs Botafogo SP

Juventude Home · Elo 1,586
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Botafogo SP Away · Elo 1,508
Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Juventude win
Juventude winPick
58.2%
Draw
25.6%
Botafogo SP win
16.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.8%
No59.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.6%
Under 2.558.4%

How much we know

Juventude history75 matches
Botafogo SP history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Juventude are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Juventude are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,586 against 1,508. On rating alone Juventude would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Juventude score more

    1.09 goals a game over 75 matches for Juventude, against 0.87 over 63 for Botafogo SP.

  • Defences are close

    Juventude concede 1.16 a game, Botafogo SP 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    36% of Juventude matches, against 32% for Botafogo SP. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Juventude
Botafogo SP@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1586.0
ELO
1507.8
75
ELO · Matches
63
1586.0
Current Team ELO
1507.8
1507.8
Current Opponent ELO
1586.0
78.20
Current ELO Difference
-78.20
0.61
Expected score
0.39
75
History Matches
63
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.14
Overperformance
49.39
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
63
1.43
PPG
1.17
38.7%
Win rate
28.6%
26.7%
Draw rate
31.7%
34.7%
Loss rate
39.7%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.7%
18.7%
Over 3.5 rate
15.9%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
37
1.78
PPG
0.95
50.0%
Win rate
21.6%
27.5%
Draw rate
29.7%
22.5%
Loss rate
48.6%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.2%
32.5%
Over 2.5 rate
27.0%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.2%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
40
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
0.87
68.0%
Scoring rate
55.6%
38.7%
BTTS rate
39.7%
1.35
Goals for per game
0.70
72.5%
Scoring rate
43.2%
35.0%
BTTS rate
29.7%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.10
70.8%
Scoring rate
60.0%
20.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
75
History Matches
63
1.09
Goals Mean
0.87
1.04
Goals Std
1.02
68.0%
Scored 1+ rate
55.6%
28.0%
Scored 2+ rate
20.6%
10.7%
Scored 3+ rate
7.9%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.24
60.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.43
52.5%
Conceding rate
75.7%
0.54
Goals against per game
1.10
29.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
75
History Matches
63
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.32
Conceded Std
1.15
32.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
47.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
56.8%
70.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
47.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
56.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
63
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.55
1.05
Stability score
0.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
63
20
Lead Matches
7
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.81
23
Trailing Matches
21
21.7%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.88
Rest days
80.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
20
1.88
PPG
1.35
54.2%
Win rate
35.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
20.8%
Loss rate
35.0%
45.8%
Over 1.5 rate
55.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
4.2%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
24
Current Competition Matches
20
1.88
Current Competition PPG
1.35
0.54
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
4
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.13
1.35
Portability PPG Range
0.35
50.76
Portability Score
79.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO78.20
PPG0.25
GF0.22
GA-0.08
PPG0.53
PPG0.83
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate12.4%
Scored 2+ rate7.4%
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.65
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches12
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score0.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches4
Current Competition PPG0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.54
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range1.00
Portability Score-28.86
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO78.20
Current Opponent ELO-78.20
Current ELO Difference156.4
Expected score0.22
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Juventude

W
Juventude4–0Nautico Recife26 Oct · home
Pick: Juventude 48% · hit
D
Ceara2–2Juventude17 Oct · away
Pick: Ceara 39% · missed
W
Ponte Preta0–2Juventude7 Oct · away
Pick: Juventude 65% · hit
D
Londrina0–0Juventude1 Sep · away
Pick: Juventude 39% · missed
W
Juventude2–1CRB25 Aug · home
Pick: Juventude 43% · hit

Botafogo SP

D
Botafogo SP1–1Sport Recife31 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Recife 47% · missed
W
Avai0–2Botafogo SP24 Oct · away
Pick: Avai 53% · missed
W
CRB0–1Botafogo SP18 Oct · away
Pick: CRB 60% · missed
W
Botafogo SP1–0Ceara13 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo SP 37% · hit
W
Operario-PR1–2Botafogo SP7 Oct · away
Pick: Operario-PR 51% · missed

About this match

Juventude and Botafogo SP meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Juventude win 58.2%, draw 25.6%, Botafogo SP win 16.2%. The pick is Juventude win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.6%. Both teams to score: 40.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.