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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

Criciuma vs Novorizontino

Criciuma Home · Elo 1,613
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Novorizontino Away · Elo 1,578
Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Criciuma win
33.3%
DrawPick
36.0%
Novorizontino win
30.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.9%
No56.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.7%
Under 2.564.3%

How much we know

Criciuma history71 matches
Novorizontino history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.0%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Criciuma are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,578. On rating alone Criciuma would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.23 goals a game over 71 matches for Criciuma, against 1.28 over 67 for Novorizontino.

  • Defences are close

    Criciuma concede 0.85 a game, Novorizontino 0.85.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    31% of Criciuma matches, against 37% for Novorizontino. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Criciuma
Novorizontino@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1613.3
ELO
1577.9
71
ELO · Matches
67
1613.3
Current Team ELO
1577.9
1577.9
Current Opponent ELO
1613.3
35.43
Current ELO Difference
-35.43
0.55
Expected score
0.45
71
History Matches
67
0.08
Residual Mean
0.06
56.02
Overperformance
54.57
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
0.50
Goals against per game
0.80
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
67
1.70
PPG
1.55
45.1%
Win rate
40.3%
35.2%
Draw rate
34.3%
19.7%
Loss rate
25.4%
60.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
31.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.3%
14.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.9%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
33
1.94
PPG
1.36
54.3%
Win rate
33.3%
31.4%
Draw rate
36.4%
14.3%
Loss rate
30.3%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.6%
34.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
35
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.28
74.6%
Scoring rate
68.7%
42.3%
BTTS rate
44.8%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.12
82.9%
Scoring rate
54.5%
45.7%
BTTS rate
36.4%
0.90
Goals for per game
1.58
75.0%
Scoring rate
68.4%
35.0%
BTTS rate
42.1%
71
History Matches
67
1.23
Goals Mean
1.28
1.05
Goals Std
1.21
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
68.7%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
35.8%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
0.85
54.9%
Conceding rate
64.2%
0.77
Goals against per game
0.88
51.4%
Conceding rate
60.6%
0.60
Goals against per game
0.68
50.0%
Conceding rate
57.9%
71
History Matches
67
0.85
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.07
Conceded Std
0.78
18.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.9%
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.0%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
48.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
45.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
67
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.47
4.71
Stability score
1.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
67
23
Lead Matches
18
87.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.83
12
Trailing Matches
10
50.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.92
Rest days
81.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.63
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
35
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
27
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
19
1.85
PPG
1.74
50.0%
Win rate
47.4%
35.0%
Draw rate
31.6%
15.0%
Loss rate
21.1%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
10.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
20
Current Competition Matches
19
1.85
Current Competition PPG
1.74
0.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.89
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.86
57.99
Portability Score
63.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO35.43
PPG0.15
GF-0.06
GA-0.01
PPG0.11
PPG0.58
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.86
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score3.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate9.2%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.59
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-5.02
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO35.43
Current Opponent ELO-35.43
Current ELO Difference70.87
Expected score0.10
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Criciuma

W
Criciuma2–0Ponte Preta30 Oct · home
Pick: Criciuma 69% · hit
L
Sport Recife2–1Criciuma24 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Recife 43% · hit
W
São Bernardo0–1Criciuma18 Oct · away
Pick: Criciuma 36% · hit
W
Criciuma1–0America Mineiro12 Oct · home
Pick: Criciuma 61% · hit
L
Ceara1–0Criciuma8 Oct · away
Pick: Ceara 37% · hit

Novorizontino

W
Novorizontino2–1Fortaleza EC7 Nov · home
Pick: Novorizontino 43% · hit
W
Novorizontino2–1Operario-PR1 Nov · home
Pick: Novorizontino 48% · hit
W
Atletico Goianiense0–1Novorizontino24 Oct · away
Pick: Novorizontino 34% · hit
D
Vila Nova2–2Novorizontino18 Oct · away
Pick: Vila Nova 39% · missed
W
Novorizontino5–1Ponte Preta12 Oct · home
Pick: Novorizontino 73% · hit

About this match

Criciuma and Novorizontino meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Criciuma win 33.3%, draw 36.0%, Novorizontino win 30.7%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 35.7%. Both teams to score: 43.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.