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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

Atletico Goianiense Home · Elo 1,558
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cuiaba Away · Elo 1,525
Estadio Antonio Accioly, Goiania Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico Goianiense win
Atletico Goianiense winPick
42.9%
Draw
34.0%
Cuiaba win
23.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.8%
Under 2.564.2%

How much we know

Atletico Goianiense history75 matches
Cuiaba history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Atletico Goianiense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atletico Goianiense are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,525. On rating alone Atletico Goianiense would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.05 goals a game over 75 matches for Atletico Goianiense, against 1.14 over 63 for Cuiaba.

  • Atletico Goianiense concede fewer

    Atletico Goianiense concede 0.85 a game, Cuiaba 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    28% of Atletico Goianiense matches, against 32% for Cuiaba. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Goianiense
Cuiaba@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1557.9
ELO
1525.2
75
ELO · Matches
63
1557.9
Current Team ELO
1525.2
1525.2
Current Opponent ELO
1557.9
32.65
Current ELO Difference
-32.65
0.55
Expected score
0.45
75
History Matches
63
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.32
Overperformance
51.59
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
63
1.44
PPG
1.40
34.7%
Win rate
34.9%
40.0%
Draw rate
34.9%
25.3%
Loss rate
30.2%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.3%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.7%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
31
1.74
PPG
1.06
46.2%
Win rate
19.4%
35.9%
Draw rate
48.4%
17.9%
Loss rate
32.3%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
35.5%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
39
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.05
Goals for per game
1.14
65.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
38.7%
BTTS rate
41.3%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.94
71.8%
Scoring rate
58.1%
33.3%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.05
Goals for per game
0.95
65.0%
Scoring rate
63.6%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.9%
75
History Matches
63
1.05
Goals Mean
1.14
1.01
Goals Std
1.12
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
29.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.9%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.00
54.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.72
Goals against per game
1.23
43.6%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.85
Goals against per game
0.82
60.0%
Conceding rate
63.6%
75
History Matches
63
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.96
Conceded Std
0.89
21.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.0%
9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
56.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
45.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
56.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
45.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
63
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.34
Goal Difference Std
1.48
1.55
Stability score
0.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
63
23
Lead Matches
17
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.73
15
Trailing Matches
14
33.3%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.88
Rest days
83.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
39
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
28
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
22
1.50
PPG
1.41
35.0%
Win rate
31.8%
45.0%
Draw rate
45.5%
20.0%
Loss rate
22.7%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
18.2%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
20
Current Competition Matches
22
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.41
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.14
7
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.33
Portability PPG Range
1.30
80.16
Portability Score
49.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO32.65
PPG0.04
GF-0.09
GA-0.15
PPG0.09
PPG0.68
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate33.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches12
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score1.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate15.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.06
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.97
Portability Score30.47
Rest days-3.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.76
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO32.65
Current Opponent ELO-32.65
Current ELO Difference65.31
Expected score0.09
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico Goianiense

D
Fortaleza EC0–0Atletico Goianiense2 Nov · away
Pick: Fortaleza EC 50% · missed
L
Atletico Goianiense0–1Novorizontino24 Oct · home
Pick: Novorizontino 34% · hit
D
Ponte Preta1–1Atletico Goianiense16 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Goianiense 61% · missed
L
CRB3–1Atletico Goianiense7 Oct · away
Pick: CRB 50% · hit
W
Avai0–1Atletico Goianiense30 Aug · away
Pick: Avai 43% · missed

Cuiaba

L
Cuiaba1–2São Bernardo1 Nov · home
Pick: Cuiaba 44% · missed
L
America Mineiro1–0Cuiaba26 Oct · away
Pick: Cuiaba 37% · missed
L
Londrina1–0Cuiaba20 Oct · away
Pick: Londrina 35% · hit
D
Vila Nova0–0Cuiaba7 Oct · away
Pick: Vila Nova 52% · missed
W
Botafogo SP1–2Cuiaba29 Aug · away
Pick: Botafogo SP 40% · missed

About this match

Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Antonio Accioly, Goiania. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Atletico Goianiense win 42.9%, draw 34.0%, Cuiaba win 23.0%. The pick is Atletico Goianiense win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.8%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.