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Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 19 2026

Ammerthal vs Kornburg

Ammerthal Home · Elo 1,431
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kornburg Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kornburg win
Ammerthal win
22.9%
Draw
22.4%
Kornburg winPick
54.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.8%
No41.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Ammerthal history22 matches
Kornburg history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Kornburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kornburg are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,431. On rating alone Kornburg would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Kornburg score more

    1.27 goals a game over 22 matches for Ammerthal, against 1.57 over 53 for Kornburg.

  • Kornburg concede fewer

    Ammerthal concede 2.41 a game, Kornburg 1.66.

  • Ammerthal games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Ammerthal matches, against 58% for Kornburg. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ammerthal
Kornburg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1431.5
ELO
1508.0
22
ELO · Matches
53
1431.5
Current Team ELO
1508.0
1508.0
Current Opponent ELO
1431.5
-76.52
Current ELO Difference
76.52
0.39
Expected score
0.61
22
History Matches
53
-0.15
Residual Mean
0.00
42.36
Overperformance
50.12
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.50
2.70
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.96
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
2.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.93
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.82
Overall performance9 signals
90
22
Matches
53
0.82
PPG
1.40
22.7%
Win rate
35.8%
13.6%
Draw rate
32.1%
63.6%
Loss rate
32.1%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
28
0.83
PPG
1.25
25.0%
Win rate
28.6%
8.3%
Draw rate
39.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
32.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
53.6%
2.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
12
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.57
72.7%
Scoring rate
79.2%
63.6%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.61
75.0%
Scoring rate
78.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
22
History Matches
53
1.27
Goals Mean
1.57
1.32
Goals Std
1.55
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
22.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.41
Goals against per game
1.66
86.4%
Conceding rate
73.6%
2.42
Goals against per game
1.89
91.7%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.43
Goals against per game
0.71
71.4%
Conceding rate
42.9%
22
History Matches
53
2.41
Conceded Mean
1.66
2.12
Conceded Std
1.78
63.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.4%
36.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
2.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
22
History Matches
53
0.82
Result entropy
1.00
2.49
Goal Difference Std
2.59
18.44
Stability score
0.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
51
5
Lead Matches
18
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.72
8
Trailing Matches
11
12.5%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.96
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
13
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
8
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.14
PPG
2.14
28.6%
Win rate
57.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
42.9%
42.9%
Loss rate
0.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.14
Current Competition PPG
2.14
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.29
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.78
0.23
Portability PPG Range
2.14
81.05
Portability Score
39.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
22
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-76.52
PPG-0.58
GF-0.29
GA0.75
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.42
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.42
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean0.75
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate20.2%
Conceded 3+ rate13.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score18.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.15
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate18.9%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.71
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.67
Portability PPG Range-1.91
Portability Score42.05
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-76.52
Current Opponent ELO76.52
Current ELO Difference-153.0
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-7.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ammerthal

W
ASV Neumarkt1–4Ammerthal7 Nov · away
Pick: ASV Neumarkt 52% · missed
L
Ammerthal1–3Großbardorf31 Oct · home
Pick: Ammerthal 53% · missed
L
DJK Bamberg4–1Ammerthal23 Oct · away
Pick: Ammerthal 47% · missed
L
Ammerthal0–2Cham18 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 77% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kornburg

W
Kornburg2–0DJK Bamberg6 Nov · home
Pick: Kornburg 69% · hit
W
Kornburg3–0Cham30 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 42% · missed
W
Kornburg3–1Neudrossenfeld16 Oct · home
Pick: Kornburg 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ammerthal and Kornburg meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ammerthal win 22.9%, draw 22.4%, Kornburg win 54.7%. The pick is Kornburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 58.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.